基于N-K模型的桥梁施工安全风险耦合分析

Coupling Analysis of Bridge Construction Safety Risk Based on N-K Model

桥梁施工事故受到多因素交织的协同影响,深入剖析和探讨风险因素之间的耦合关系,对于预防施工安全事故、保障桥梁建设顺利进行具有重大意义。本文运用N-K模型对1996年至2023年间发生的110起国内外桥梁施工事故案例进行分析,研究人员、物质、管理和环境等四个关键因素之间的耦合机理。结果显示:参与耦合的风险因素数量越多,桥梁施工过程中越容易发生危险。人员因素是引发桥梁施工安全风险事故的主要影响因素,管理因素和物质因素次之。人员-管理、人员-物质的风险耦合程度较大,在桥梁施工过程中,应尽可能避免人员与管理或物质因素发生风险耦合而引发严重的多因素耦合作用。基于此,本文从管控关键风险因素耦合、避免多因素发生耦合及从风险源头防止风险耦合三方面出发,提出了相应的管控措施,为桥梁施工人员提供参考依据和决策支持。

Bridge construction accidents are affected by multiple factors.It is of great significance to analyze and discuss the coupling relationship between risk factors for preventing construction accidents and ensuring the smooth progress of bridge construction.In this paper,the N-K model is used to analyze 110 cases of bridge construction accidents at home and abroad from 1996 to 2023,and the coupling mechanism among four key factors:researchers,material,management and environment.The results show that the greater the number of risk factors involved in coupling,the more likely the risk will occur during bridge construction.Personnel factors are the main influencing factors of bridge construction safety accidents,followed by management factors and material factors.The degree of risk coupling between personnel and management and personnel and material is large.In the process of bridge construction,the risk coupling between personnel and management or material factors should be avoided as much as possible to cause serious multi-factor coupling.Based on this,this paper puts forward corresponding control measures from three aspects:controlling key risk factor coupling,avoiding multi-factor coupling and preventing risk coupling from the source of risk,so as to provide reference basis and decision support for bridge construction personnel.