我国新型农业经营主体发展对农业碳排放强度的影响:“减碳效应”或“增碳效应”

The Influence of the Development of New Agricultural Business Entities on the Intensity of Agricultural Carbon Emission:“Carbon Reduction Effect”or“Carbon Increase Effect”

新型农业经营主体是发展现代农业的生力军和引领力量,探究新型农业经营主体发展对农业碳排放的影响机制,对实现我国“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本文基于2006—2022年的省级面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型、中介模型和门槛效应模型实证分析新型农业经营主体发展对农业碳排放强度的影响效应。研究发现,(1)新型农业经营主体发展对农业碳排放强度存在明显的“减碳效应”且具有空间溢出特征,本地区新型农业经营主体发展对相邻地区农业碳排放存在“减碳效应”。(2)新型农业经营主体通过土地规模经营、科技投入、人力资本投入间接路径实现“减碳效应”。(3)新型农业经营主体发展对农业碳排放强度具有非线性影响,随着农业机械化效率提高,新型农业经营主体发展的“减碳效应”也会提高。因此,要继续发挥新型农业经营主体在固碳减排方面的优势,深入推进低碳农业的发展。

As the fresh force and leading force in the development of modern agriculture,exploring the influence mechanism of the development of new agricultural business entities on agricultural carbon emission is of great significance to the realization of the"double carbon'goal.Based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2022,this study empirically analyzes the impact of the development of new agricultural business entities on agricultural carbon emission intensity by using the spatial Dubin model,the intermediary model and the threshold effect model.It is found that(1)the development of new agricultural business entities has an obvious"carbon reduction effect"on agricultural carbon emission intensity and has a spatial spillover feature,the development of new agricultural business entities in this region has"carbon reduction effect"on agricultural carbon emissions in neighboring regions.(2)New agricultural business entities realize"carbon reduction effect"indirectly through land scale management,scientific and technological investment,and human capital investment.(3)The development of new agricultural business entities has a nonlinear effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity.With the improvement of agricultural mechanization efficiency,the carbon reduction effect of the development of new agricultural business entities will also increase.Therefore,it is necessary to continue to give play to the advantages of new agricultural business entities in carbon sequestration and emission reduction,and further promote the development of low-carbon agriculture.