财政支出、财政压力与信贷过度扩张:主动而为还是被动之举?

Government expenditure,Fiscal Pressure and Excessive Credit Expansion:Positive or Passive Actions?

近年来我国信贷增长与实体经济增长之间的分化日益突出,表现为以投入带动GDP增长的效果减弱。在中国式分权经济激励和政治激励下,地方政府充分利用控制的财政资源动员信贷资源投入推动经济增长,信贷过度扩张与地方政府行为密切相关。利用县域面板数据,以财政支出作为地方政府控制的财政资源的度量,研究发现,财政支出对信贷过度扩张有显著正向影响,而财政压力则有显著负向影响,信贷过度扩张是地方政府通过利用自身控制的财政资源的主动而为,而非应对财政压力的被动之举。结构变化分析显示,在2008年后地方政府对信贷投放的干预能力进一步增强。异质性分析表明,可用信贷资源越多,财政支出对贷款过度扩张影响越强;政府对经济主导程度越高,财政支出对贷款过度扩张影响越小;在边际投入报酬递减规律的作用下,财政支出对信贷过度扩张的作用随着经济规模增长逐步增强。对此,应划清政府与市场运行边界,让财政与金融回归各自职能。

In recent years,the differentiation between credit growth and the real ecoNmy growth has become increasingly remarkable,as a result of the weakened effect of using investment to promote GDP growth.Under the economic and political incentives of Chinese Decentralized mode,local governments make full use of controlled fi‐nancial resources to mobilize credit resources to promote economic growth,so the excessive credit expansion is closely related to local government behavior.Using county-level panel data and using government expenditure as a measure of fiscal resources controlled by local governments,this paper finds that government expenditure has a sig‐nificant positive effect on excessive credit expansion,while fiscal pressure has a significant negative impact.Exces‐sive credit expansion is the positive action of local governments by using their own controlled fiscal resources,rath‐er than a passive response to fiscal pressure.Structure analysis shows that the intervention activity of local govern‐ments in credit allocation has further strengthened after 2008.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the more invest‐ment of credit resources,the stronger the effect of government expenditure on excessive credit expansion;The high‐er extent of the government dominance in economy,the smaller the effect of government expenditure on excessive credit expansion.Under the law of diminishing marginal return on investment,the effect of government expenditure on excessive credit expansion gradually increases with the growth of economic scale.It is necessary to clarify the boundaries between government and market,and let the fiscal and finance to return to their original position.