1955—2022年邢台市和邯郸市的降水量和气温时序特征分析

Analysis of the temporal characteristics of precipitation and temperature in Xingtai City and Handan City from 1955 to 2022

为研究邢台市和邯郸市的区域降水量以及气温的时序特征,本文采用线性趋势、累积距平M-K突变趋势检验分析、小波分析以及R/S重标极差分析的方法分析邢台市和邯郸市的降水量和气温两个时间序列趋势性、突变性和周期性,并通过皮尔逊相关分析确定两个序列间的相关性。研究结果如下:a.邢台市降水量序列呈衰减趋势,突变点不明显;邯郸市降水量序列呈上升趋势,突变点为2007年;两地降水量序列的主震荡周期主要集中于4~8a,显著性不明显;Hurst值分别为0.6263和0.7657;b.邢台市和邯郸市气温序列呈上升趋势,突变点为1995—1996年;主振荡周期集中于7a,显著性不明显;Hurst值分别为0.783282和0.733982;c.邢台市和邯郸市降水量和气温序列的皮尔逊相关指数分别为-0.137和-0.01,呈负相关关系。研究表明邢台市和邯郸市的降水量时序特征存在差异,气温时序特征大体相同,两者均存在未来的可持续性。本研究可为深入挖掘气候变化因素,建立更准确的区域气候模型提供基础。

This study investigates the temporal characteristics of regional precipitation and temperature in Xingtai City and Handan City,using linear trend analysis,cumulative anomaly M-K mutation trend test,wavelet analysis,and R/S rescaled range analysis to examine the trends,abrupt changes,and periodicity of these two time series.Pearson correlation analysis was employed to determine the correlation between the precipitation and temperature series.The results are as follows:(1)The precipitation series in Xingtai shows a decreasing trend without significant abrupt changes,while Handan City’s series shows an increasing trend,with an abrupt change in 2007.The main oscillation period of precipitation in both regions is concentrated between 4-8 years,with limited significance,and Hurst values of 0.6263 and 0.7657 for Xingtai City and Handan City,respectively.(2)Both Xingtai City and Handan City temperature series display an increasing trend,with abrupt changes observed in 1995-1996.The main oscillation period for temperature is around 7 years,though not significant, with Hurst values of 0. 783282 for Xingtai City and 0. 733982 for Handan City. (3) The Pearson correlation coefficients between precipitation and temperature series in Xingtai City and Handan City are - 0. 137 and - 0. 01, indicating a negative correlation. These findings suggest distinct temporal characteristics for precipitation in Xingtai City and Handan City, while temperature trends are generally similar, with both indicating future sustainability. This research provides a foundation for further exploration of climate change factors and the development of more accurate regional climate models.