基于大气污染物与寿命损失年的金华市空气质量健康指数构建研究

Construction of air quality health index in Jinhua City based on air pollutants and years of life lost

目的 基于大气污染物与人群寿命损失年(YLL)的暴露-反应关系构建浙江省金华市空气质量健康指数(AQHI),评价空气质量健康风险。方法通过金华市环境监测中心和金华市气象局收集2014-2021年金华市金东区和婺城区的大气污染物和气象资料,通过浙江省慢性病监测信息管理系统收集同期居民非意外死亡资料;采用广义相加模型(GAM)分析大气污染物与YLL的暴露-反应关系,筛选主要污染物计算AQHI;采用GAM分析AQHI与YLL的暴露-反应关系。结果单污染物模型结果显示,PM_(2.5)在滞后1 d对YLL影响最大,SO_(2)在当日影响最大。双污染物模型结果显示,PM_(2.5)在滞后1 d分别纳入其他污染物后,对YLL的影响有统计学意义;SO_(2)在当日纳入NO_(2)后,对YLL的影响有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。2014-2021年O_(3)日均质量浓度超标率较高,为42.27%。根据单污染物和双污染物模型分析结果、大气污染物超标情况和相关文献,选择PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2和O_(3)为主要污染物计算AQHI。2014-2021年金华市AQHI M (Q_R)为1.40 (1.13),按照AQHI分级标准,94.55%的时间处于低风险,4.93%的时间处于中风险。AQHI每升高1个Q_R,对全人群、男性、女性、<65岁和≥65岁人群YLL的影响均有统计学意义,YLL分别增加6.21、3.26、6.46、4.24和10.57人年。结论2014-2021年金华市大部分时间空气质量健康风险为低风险,AQHI升高与人群YLL风险增加有关。

Objective To construct air quality health index(AQHI)in Jinhua City,Zhejiang Province based on the ex⁃posure-response relationship between air pollutants and years of life lost(YLL),and evaluate the health risk associated with air quality.Methods Air pollutants and meteorological data in Jindong District and Wucheng District of Jinhua City from 2014 to 2021 were collected through Jinhua Environmental Monitoring Center and Jinhua Meteorological Bu⁃reau.Non-accidental death data of residents during the same period was collected through Zhejiang Chronic Disease Monitoring Information Management System.The exposure-response relationship between major air pollutants and YLL was analyzed using a generalized additive model(GAM),and major pollutants were screened for calculating AQHI.The exposure-response relationship between AQHI and YLL was analyzed using GAM.Results The results of single-pollut⁃ant model analysis showed that the lagged effect of PM_(2.5) on YLL was the largest at lag of 1 day,and the effect of SO_(2) on YLL was the largest on the same day.The results of dual-pollutant model analysis showed that the impact of PM_(2.5) on YLL was statistically significant when other pollutants were included at a lag of 1 day,and the impact of SO2 on YLL was statistically significant when NO_(2) was included on the same day(all P<0.05).The average daily mass con⁃centration of O3 exceeded the standard by a relatively high rate of 42.27% from 2014 to 2021.Based on the analysis re⁃sults of single-pollutant and two-pollutant models,excessive pollutant condition and relevant research findings,PM_(2.5),SO_(2),NO_(2) and O_(3) were selected as the major pollutants for calculating the AQHI.The median AQHI value of 1.40(interquar⁃tile range,1.13)from 2014 to 2021.According to the AQHI classification standard,94.55%was the time was at low risk,and 4.93%of the time was at medium risk.With an increase in AQHI by one interquartile range,the YLL among the entire population,males,females,<65-year-old and≥65-year-old populations would increase 6.21,3.26,6.46,4.24 and 10.57 person-years,respectively.Conclusions The air quality health risk in Jinhua City was low at most of the time from 2014 to 2021.An increase in AQHI was associated with an increased risk of YLL among population.