全球央行迎来紧缩性货币政策的换挡期

The biggest highlight of the world economy:global central banks ushered in a period of tightening monetary policy

在高利率政策抑制下,通货膨胀下挫、就业力度减弱、消费需求疲软、经济景气低迷,叠加政府债务和家庭债务持续增高,偿债负担愈益加重,降息逐渐成为全球央行后续货币政策变化的主流趋势。各国宏观经济形势不尽相同,央行选择降息的时间节点有先有后,共同点是依据数据变化,降息温和、谨慎、渐进,但美联储首次降息为50个基点。发达经济体央行先后降息,驱动全球迎来紧缩性货币政策调整的拐点,然而其路漫漫。降息溢出效应具有滞后性,各国货币政策分化仍在加剧,最终利率水平不会像以往降息周期那么低,难以再现零利率和负利率。降息对各国经济乃至世界经济有激发作用,但当下利好经济因素趋减,遏制因素趋多,不易高估降息的效果。必须牢记,不管西方央行的货币政策是紧缩抑或宽松,其外溢效应都会对“全球南方”产生相关联的负面影响,不能放松应有警惕。

Under the suppression of high interest rate policies, inflation has fallen, employment has weakened, consumer demand has weakened, economic downturn has been sluggish, and government debt and household debt have continued to rise, and the debt service burden has become increasingly aggravated, and interest rate cuts have gradually become the mainstream trend of subsequent monetary policy changes of global central banks. The macroeconomic situation of various countries is different, and the central bank chooses to cut interest rates at different times, and the common point is that according to the changes in data, interest rate cuts are moderate, cautious and gradual, but the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time. Central banks in advanced economies have cut interest rates one after another, driving the world to usher in an inflection point of tightening monetary policy adjustment, but there is still a long way to go. The spillover effect of interest rate cuts is lagging behind, and the divergence of monetary policies in various countries is still intensifying, and the final interest rate level will not be as low as in previous interest rate cut cycles, and it is difficult to reproduce zero and negative interest rates. Interest rate cuts have a stimulating effect on the economies of various countries and even the world economy, but at present, the favorable economic factors tend to decrease, and there are more containment factors, so it is not easy to overestimate the effect of interest rate cuts. It is important to keep in mind that regardless of whether the monetary policy of Western central banks is tight or moderately, its spillover effects will have a negative impact on the “Global South”, it must not relax vigilance.