地方政府注意力与农业转移人口市民化

Local Government Attention and the Citizenization of the Agricultural Transfer Population

本文基于2009—2021年290个城市发布的3595份《政府工作报告》,运用机器学习和文本分析技术评估地方政府注意力,从城镇化的角度探讨地方政府注意力对农业转移人口市民化的影响。结合中国流动人口动态监测调查数据进行的实证分析显示,无论是宏观层面还是微观层面,地方政府注意力都能促进农业转移人口市民化。在高房价城市中,地方政府注意力对农业转移人口市民化进程的推动作用更为明显;拥有更高人力资本和更高收入水平的农业转移人口更易受到地方政府注意力的影响。地方政府通过提升公共服务增量提高了农业转移人口的城市归属感,间接促进了农业转移人口市民化。此外,社会网络在这一过程中发挥了正向调节作用。因此,本文建议地方政府应优化注意力资源配置,完善政府信息公开制度,建立网络问政平台,设计并完善多维度的官员考核指标体系,以促进农业转移人口市民化。

The dynamic equilibrium between the provision of public services by local governments and the citizenization demands of the agricultural transfer population is essential for achieving high‑quality citizenization.Existing research on the citizenization of the agricultural transfer population mainly examines the role of local governments from the perspectives of institutional constraints and the quality of basic public services.However,citizenization is a long‑term process from“entering a city”to“integrating into a city”,which depends not only on the current efforts of local governments but also on the prospects for local governments.Government attention has strong adaptability in addressing this issue,but there is a lack of research analyzing the impact of local government on the citizenization of the agricultural transfer population from the perspective of government attention,especially with insufficient discussion on the micro‑level mechanisms involved.Based on 3595 government work reports from 290 cities between 2009 and 2021,this study uses machine learning and text analysis methods to extract text content related to citizenization topics from these reports,thus measuring local government attention.Combining this with the mixed cross‑sectional data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of local government attention on the citizenization of the agricultural transfer population and the micro‑level mechanisms involved from both macro and micro perspectives.Benchmark regression results indicate that local government attention significantly promotes citizenization of the agricultural transfer population at both macro and micro levels,and this conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity problems and conducting robustness tests.Further micro‑level analysis reveals that attention to labor and education dimensions has the most significant impact.The mechanism analysis shows that the local government attention enhances the sense of belonging of agricultural transfer population to the city by increasing the increment of public services,thus indirectly promoting the citizenization process.Furthermore,social networks play a positive moderating role in this process.The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that compared to cities with low housing prices,the promotion effect of local government attention on the citizenization of the agricultural transfer population is stronger in cities with high housing prices;agricultural transfer populations with higher human capital and income levels are more strongly influenced by local government attention.This study provides useful insights for encouraging local governments to optimize their attention allocation to promote the citizenization of the agricultural transfer population,thereby fostering a high‑quality dynamic equilibrium between the provision of public services by local governments and the citizenization demands of the agricultural transfer population.It offers necessary methodological and paradigmatic references for subsequent related research.