双碳目标约束下地区产业转型升级的机制研究

Research on the Mechanism of Regional Industrial Transformation and Upgrading under the Constraints of Dual Carborn Goals

本文利用2005—2020年中国282个地级市面板数据,采用双重差分法分析低碳城市试点对产业转型升级的政策效应。研究发现:低碳城市试点显著推动了试点地区产业转型升级。机制分析发现,低碳城市试点主要通过有为政府自上而下发挥资源再配置机制和有效市场自下而上发挥自选择机制推动地区产业转型升级。此外,低碳城市试点政策具有明显的区域异质性和工具异质性,该政策对东部地区产业转型升级的作用更加明显,命令控制型和市场激励型政策工具显著推动了地区产业转型升级。以上结论为中国实现“双碳”目标同时兼顾产业转型升级提供了现实依据。

This article takes low-carbon city pilot projects as exogenous shocks and uses panel data from 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2020 to test the impact of pilot policies on industrial transformation and upgrading using the DID model.Research has shown that low-carbon city pilot projects have significantly promoted industrial transformation and pilot area upgrades.Mechanism analysis found that the low-carbon city pilot program mainly promotes local industrial transformation and upgrading through the government's top-down resource reallocation mechanism and the bottomup self-selection mechanism of the effective market.In addition,low-carbon city pilot policies have obvious regional heterogeneity and tool heterogeneity.The policy has a more significant effect on industrial transformation and upgrading in the eastern regions,and command control and market incentive policy tools significantly promote regional industrial transformation and upgrading.The above conclusion provides a practical basis for China to achieve the“dual carbon”goal while also considering industrial transformation and up-grading.