基于供应链韧性的中国对东盟农产品出口的二元边际研究

A Binary Marginal Study of China's Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Based on Supply Chain Resilience

在面对重大公共卫生事件和进出口贸易熔断时,供应链韧性和稳定性是穿越波动、维持物资供给的重要保障。本文基于企业异质性贸易理论构建分析框架,利用2018—2021年的月度数据,采用双差法和二元边际分解法,对比分析了新冠疫情期间中国对东盟农产品出口的动态变化,深入探讨供应链韧性对贸易稳定性的影响。研究发现,新冠疫情的爆发对于农产品出口东盟的集约边际和扩展边际都有显著的负向影响,而伙伴国新冠疫情的爆发对于集约边际有正向影响,对扩展边际有负向影响,结果凸显了供应链韧性在应对重大外部冲击时的重要性,尤其是在维持既有贸易关系方面的表现。此外,精深加工类农产品的出口增速明显高于初级加工类和未加工类农产品。本研究为分析全球重大突发事件背景下,供应链韧性对农产品贸易的影响提供了新视角,为贸易政策制定与区域经济恢复提供了实证支持。

In the face of significant public health events and disruptions in import-export trade,the resilience and stability of supply chains are crucial for navigating fluctuations and maintaining material supplies.This study uses monthly data from 2018 to 2021 to employ the difference-in-differences approach and binary margin decomposition method.It analyzes the dynamic changes in China’s export of agricultural products to ASEAN during the COVID-19 pandemic,delving into the impact of supply chain resilience on trade stability.The findings indicate that the outbreak of COVID-19 in China has a significant negative impact on both the intensive and extensive margins of agricultural exports to ASEAN.In contrast,the outbreak in partner countries has a positive effect on the intensive margin and a negative effect on the extensive margin,underscoring the importance of supply chain resilience in responding to major external shocks,especially in maintaining established trade relationships.Moreover,exports of deeply processed agricultural products grew significantly faster than those of primary and unprocessed products.This research provides a new perspective on analyzing the impact of supply chain resilience on agricultural trade under the backdrop of global emergencies,offering empirical support for the formulation of trade policies and regional economic recovery.