CALPUFF模型在某开发开放试验区规划环评大气环境影响预测中的应用研究

Research on the Application of CALPUFF Model on Atmospheric Environmental Impact Prediction in Pilot Zone

大气环境影响预测是规划环境影响评价的重要组成部分,根据预测范围可选择多个模型。对于尺度较大区域,一般选取CALPUFF。本研究采用某开发开放试验区规划环评实际案例进行分析,预测了各污染因子在正常情况下对环境空气保护目标的环境影响,得到网格点处的地面浓度和规划范围内最大地面小时浓度点,以此分析该开发开放试验区实施规划后排放的大气污染物对周围环境及敏感点的影响,进而为合理制定试验区产业发展规模和布局提供宏观决策。根据预测结果,由于PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)预测结果超标,建议慎重考虑规划片区产业定位,合理确定水泥产业发展规模,减少不利环境影响。

Atmospheric environmental impact prediction is a critical aspect of environmental impact assessment planning,with various models available depending on the prediction scope.CALPUFF is commonly chosen for larger-scale areas.This study examined a practical case of environmental impact assessment planning within a specific development and opening trial zone.It forecasted the environmental impact of different pollution factors on environmental air protection targets under normal conditions.Ground concentrations at grid points and maximum ground-level hourly concentrations within the planning scope were measured.The datum were utilized to analyze the effects of atmospheric pollutants emitted post-implementation of planning in the development and opening trial zone on surrounding environments and sensitive areas.The objective of this analysis was to provide macro-level decisions for the rational formulation of industrial development scale and layout within the trial zone.Given that the predicted results for PM10 and PM2.5 exceed standards,careful consideration of industrial positioning in the planning area was recommended,along with a reasonable determination of the scale of development to mitigate adverse environmental impacts.