西部资源型城市产业链韧性的时空演变及驱动因素分析

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Industrial Chain Resilience in Resource-based Cities in the Western Region and Its Influencing Factors

产业链韧性研究是推动西部资源型城市产业发展行稳致远的关键着力点。本文构建西部资源型城市产业链韧性评价指标体系,测度了2011—2021年37个资源型城市的产业链韧性指数,并基于该指标评价体系,借助莫兰指数等方法考察产业链韧性的时空演变特征。分析研究发现:(1)2011—2021年西部资源型城市产业链韧性水平整体上呈缓慢上升的演变趋势;(2)西部资源型城市产业链基础、产业链恢复力、产业链创新发展能力整体均呈现上升趋势,产业链恢复能力呈“南高北低”的空间格局,产业链抵抗力与产业链可持续发展能力均较为稳定;(3)空间自相关系数rho为0.129,且在1%的水平下显著,表明在西部资源型城市中,不同城市之间的相互作用和联系对产业链韧性具有重要影响;(4)西部资源型城市的资源支出占比与产业链韧性水平负相关,技术创新水平与产业链韧性水平显著正相关,而人口密度、城市经济密度、经济发展水平、产业结构、产业整体升级水平、产业结构高级化、产业结构合理化以及环境规制对西部资源型城市的产业链韧性都具有显著正向影响。

Research on industrial chain resilience is a key focal point for promoting stable and long-term industrial development in resource-based cities in western China&.his paper constructs an evaluation index system for the industrial chain resilience of resource-based cities in western China and measures the industrial chain resilience index of 37 resource-based cities from 2011 to 2021&.ased on this index evaluation system,methods such as Moran's index are used to examine the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of industrial chain resilience&.he analysis and research findings are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2021,the overall level of industrial chain resilience of resource-based cities in western China shows a slowly rising evolution trend.(2)The industrial chain foundation,industrial chain resilience,and industrial chain innovation and development capabilities of resource-based cities in western China all show an upward trend&.he industrial chain recovery ability presents a spatial pattern of “higher in the south and lower in the north”&.he industrial chain resistance and industrial chain sustainable development capabilities are relatively stable.(3)The spatial autocorrelation coefficient rho is 0.129 and is significant at the 1% level,indicating that in resource-based cities in western China,the interactions and connections between different cities have an important influence on industrial chain resilience.(4)The proportion of resource expenditure in resource-based cities in western China is negatively correlated with the level of industrial chain resilience&.he level of technological innovation is significantly positively correlated with the level of industrial chain resilience&.hile population density,urban economic density,economic development level,industrial structure,overall industrial upgrading level,advanced industrial structure,rationalized industrial structure,and environmental regulations all have significant positive impacts on the industrial chain resilience of resource-based cities in western China.