重大事件冲击、经济不确定性与宏观经济波动

Momentous Event Shocks,Economic Uncertainties and Macro-economic Fluctuations

中国经济发展正处于百年变局之下,公共卫生事件等重大外生冲击引发了较大的经济不确定性,对宏观经济运行产生了深刻影响。鉴于此,本文以历次重大事件冲击为背景,提取不同事件时期下的经济波动率,并将这一冲击引入DSGE系统当中,全面探讨了不同类型的经济不确定性冲击对宏观经济和金融系统的影响,主要得出如下结论:第一,金融不确定性通常会引发最大的经济波动,而供给不确定性和需求不确定性的影响相对较弱,这是因为金融不确定性可以通过金融加速器效应放大经济波动。第二,当出现经济不确定性冲击时,金融系统在较短时间内就能回归至均衡水平,但实体经济的恢复则需较长时间。第三,金融摩擦机制能够放大不确定性冲击对金融系统的影响,而价格粘性机制则易于使经济陷入通货膨胀困境,此外,二者的联合作用会使经济长期陷入消费低迷状态。总体而言,应对重大事件冲击的关键在于做好事前应急预案,优化市场基础环境,一方面,在金融市场端要强化信息透明性,减小金融摩擦;另一方面,在实体经济端要充分发挥市场主体功能,弱化价格粘性效应。提高经济系统的自稳定性和培育强大的经济韧性是弱化各类重大不确定性冲击的根本路径。

China's economy is now undergoing a major change in a century.The public health event and other major exogenous shocks have triggered typical economic uncertainties,which have a profound impact on macro-economy.Based on the background of momentous event shocks,this paper estimates different types of economic uncertainties in different crisis periods,then introduces uncertainty shocks into DSGE model,comprehensively discusses the impact of economic uncertainties on the macro-economy and financial system,and mainly draws the following conclusions:First,financial uncertainty shocks usually cause the largest economic fluctuations,while the impact of supply and demand uncertainty shocks is relatively weak,this is because financial uncertainty shocks can amplify economic fluctuations through financial accelerator effects.Second,when there is an economic uncertainty shock,the financial system can return to the equilibrium level in a relatively short time,but the recovery of the real economy takes longer time.Third,the financial friction can amplify the impact of economic uncertainty shocks in financial system,while the price stickiness is easy to cause the economy to fall into the dilemma of inflation.In addition,the combined effect of the two will cause the economy to fall into a long-term consumption downturn.In general,the key to deal with the momentous event shocks is to do preparations in advance.On the one hand,in the financial market,supervision should be strengthened,information transparency should be strengthened,so that financial friction can be reduced.On the other hand,as for the real economy,we should give full play to the function of market itself to weaken the price stickiness effect.Improving the self-stability of the economic system and cultivating strong economic resilience is the fundamental way to weaken the impact of all kinds of uncertainty shocks.