美国货币政策对全球金融稳定的溢出效应

Spillover Effects of U.S.Monetary Policy on Global Financial Stability

随着全球化的深入,美国货币政策对全球金融稳定造成的影响和溢出效应引起诸多学者关注。本文首先分析了美国货币政策影响全球金融稳定的机制与渠道,然后从五个维度选取12个核心指标构建覆盖全球61个经济体的金融稳定指数,接着构建面板数据模型检验美国货币政策对全球金融稳定的溢出效应。实证研究表明:第一,美国货币政策通过利率、资本流动、政策等渠道对全球金融稳定形成显著负向冲击;第二,扩张型货币政策对全球金融稳定的负面影响强于紧缩型货币政策;第三,金融危机后美国货币政策对全球金融稳定的负向冲击效果强于金融危机前;第四,美国货币政策对新兴经济体金融稳定的影响更为显著,其中实施钉住汇率制度、资本账户开放程度较高、与美国贸易联系更紧密的新兴经济体受到负面冲击的程度更大。最后,提出相应的政策建议:应全面提升我国金融体系的韧性,防范金融风险,维持金融稳定。

With the deepening of globalization,the possible impact and spillover effect of U.S.monetary policy on global financial stability has attracted the attention of many scholars.This paper analyzes the mechanisms and channels of U.S.monetary policy affecting global financial stability,selects 12 core indicators from five dimensions to construct a financial stability index covering 61 economies around the world,and constructs a panel model to test the spillover effect of U.S.monetary policy changes on global financial stability.We find that U.S.monetary policy has a significant negative impact on global financial stability through the channels of interest rates,capital flows,and policies.We also find that,the negative impact of expansionary monetary policy on global financial stability is stronger than that of tight monetary policy.What's more,the negative impact of U.S.monetary policy on global financial stability after the financial crisis is stronger than that before the financial crisis.At last,the impact of U.S.monetary policy on the financial stability of emerging economies is more pronounced.Economies with pegged exchange rate regimes,a higher degree of capital account openness and closer trade ties with the United States have been hit to a greater extent.Therefore,China should comprehensively improve the resilience of the financial system,so as to ensure China's financial stability.