碳排放权交易试点政策对发电行业碳减排效应的影响

The Impact of Carbon Emissions Trading Pilot Policies on Carbon Reduction Effects in the Power Generation Industry

与总量控制与交易(CAT)制度不同,针对发电行业,中国碳排放权交易试点市场采用可交易绩效标准(TPS),这会对减排机制和效果产生关键影响。本文以2007—2019年我国29个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据为样本,采用双重差分法实证检验碳排放权交易试点政策的启动和碳市场的完善程度对发电行业碳排放的影响。结果表明,碳排放权交易试点政策的启动和碳市场的不断完善显著降低了发电行业的碳排放量和排放强度。同时,碳排放权交易试点政策一方面通过提高火力发电效率促进了发电行业碳减排,另一方面也为火力发电提供了过度扩张的激励,从而提高了火力发电相对于可再生能源发电的竞争力。基于此,应逐步收紧基准线,提高配额拍卖比例,以增强碳市场的减排效果,并将碳市场与可再生能源扶持政策结合起来,推动电源结构低碳转型。

Unlike the Cap-and-Trade(CAT)system,China's carbon emissions trading pilot market for the power generation industry adopts tradable performance standards(TPS),which has a key impact on emission reduction mechanisms and outcomes.This study uses panel data from 29 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2007 to 2019,applying the difference-in-differences(DID)method to empirically test the effects of the launch of carbon emissions trading pilot policies and the improvement of the carbon market on carbon emissions in the power generation industry.The results show that the launch of carbon emissions trading pilot policies and the continuous improvement of the carbon market significantly reduced carbon emissions and emission intensity in the power generation sector.Meanwhile,the carbon emissions trading pilot policy promoted carbon reduction in the power generation industry by improving the efficiency of thermal power generation,but it also increased the competitiveness of thermal power relative to renewable energy generation by providing excessive expansion incentives for thermal power.Based on these findings,it is recommended to gradually tighten the baseline,increase the proportion of quota auctions,and enhance the emission reduction effects of the carbon market.Additionally,integrating the carbon market with renewable energy support policies can facilitate the low-carbon transition of the energy structure.