河北省水资源可持续利用评价及影响因素分析

Study on the Evaluation of Water Resources Sustainable Utilization and Its Influencing Factors in Hebei Province

定量评价河北省水资源可持续利用状况及其影响因素,为该省水资源利用的可持续发展提供数据支撑。利用水资源利用与经济社会发展匹配度模型、水资源生态足迹模型和对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI),核算了2004-2021年河北省水资源生态足迹与生态承载力。在此基础上,定量分解了影响河北省水资源生态足迹变化的因素。结果表明:(1)河北省人均GDP呈增长趋势,人均用水量在经历短暂的增长期后呈波动下降趋势,2者匹配度呈增长后下降趋势;(2)在研究期内,水资源均处于亏损状态,且亏损较严重,水资源利用压力过大,处于不可持续利用的局面,亟需采取积极的措施来扭转这一局面;(3)在水资源生态足迹变化过程中,经济效应对其促进作用最大,人口效应次之,技术效应起了抑制作用,结构效应在研究期不同年份下对其表现为促进或抑制作用。

Quantitatively evaluating the status of water resources sustainable utilization in Hebei Province and its influencing factors,and to provide data support for the sustainable development of water resources utilization in the province.Using the model of matching degree between water resources utilization and economic and social development,the water resources ecological footprint model and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method,the ecological footprint of water resources and ecological carrying capacity of Hebei Province from 2004 to 2021 were calculated.On this basis,the factors affecting the change of the ecological footprint of water resources in Hebei Province were quantitatively decomposed.The results show that:①GDP per capita in Hebei Province shows a growing trend,water consumption per capita shows a fluctuating downward trend after a short period of growth,and the match between them shows a trend of growth followed by a downward trend.②During the study period,water resources are all in deficit,and the deficit is serious,and the pressure of water resources utilization was excessive.It was an unsustainable utilization situation and it’s necessary to take active measures to reverse it.③In the process of changes in the ecological footprint of water resources,the economic effect contributes the most,followed by the demographic effect,while it is inhibited by the technological effect.The structural effect either facilitated or inhibited the process in different years of the study period.