生存分析视角下我国高水平科技人才成长路径探究

Study on the Growth Pathways of High-level Scientific and Technological Talents in China from the Perspective of Survival Analysis

[研究目的]两院院士作为我国高水平科技人才的重要组成部分,为引领中国科技强国战略的实施提供重要智力支持。探究影响我国高水平科技人才成长的关键因素,特别是两院院士的职业发展路径,对深入推进新时代人才强国战略、加快建设世界重要人才中心具有重要的理论与现实意义。[研究方法]以1980—2023年8月间获评的1720名中国科学院和中国工程院院士为研究对象,并对其履历信息进行编码,采用生存分析法研究高水平科技人才成长过程中各因子的影响效果。[研究结论]Kaplan-Meier分析表明,博士学位和国外学习/工作经历对于高水平科技人才在长江学者阶段的职业成长具有显著正向影响;首次工作所属单位性质为高校或科研院所对于高水平科技人才在“杰青”阶段的职业成长具有显著正向影响。Cox分析结果表明,教育连续性对杰青阶段的职业成长具有显著影响,在长江学者阶段,年龄和拥有专利数量对职业成长具有显著影响。研究结论为理解我国高水平科技人才成长过程中的关键因素提供了实证支持,并对相关政策制定和人才培养策略提供了启发与参考。

[Research purpose]As an important part of China's high-level scientific and technological talents,academicians of the two academies provide important intellectual support for leading the implementation of China's strategy of Scientific and Technological Powerhouse.Exploring the key factors affecting the growth of China's high-level scientific and technological talents,especially the career development pathways of academicians of the two academies,is of great theoretical and practical significance for further promoting the above strategy in the new era and accelerating the construction of the world's important talent center.[Research method]Taking the 1720 academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering who were awarded between 1980 and August 2023 as research objects,and coded their biographical information,survival analysis was used to explore the effect of each factor in the growth process of high-level scientific and technological talents.[Research conclusion]Kaplan-Meier analysis shows that doctoral degree and foreign study/work experiences have a significant positive effect on the career growth of high-level scientific and technological talents at the stage of Changjiang Scholars,and the nature of the first working unit is university and research institute has a significant positive effect on the career growth of high-level scientific and technological talents at the stage of Distinguished Young Scholars.While the results of Cox analysis show that the continuity of education has a significant effect on the career growth of Distinguished Young Scholars,and age and the number of patents owned have a significant effect on the Distinguished Young Scholars’career growth.The findings of the study provide empirical support for understanding the key factors in the growth process of China's high-level scientific and technological talents,as well as inspiration and reference for related policy making and talent cultivation strategies.