基于GTWR模型的长江经济带城市群减污降碳及其影响因素分析

Analysis of Pollution and Carbon Reduction with Its Influencing Factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Urban Agglomeration Based on GTWR Model

以长江经济带三大城市群71个城市为研究对象,使用耦合协调度模型测度2011—2020年三大城市群减污降碳协调度,使用时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型探究各城市群减污降碳影响因素的时空异质性。结果表明,研究期内长江经济带三大城市群减污降碳协调度整体呈上升趋势,截至2020年,三大城市群减污降碳均达到协调状态,其协调度由高到低依次为成渝城市群、长江中游城市群、长三角城市群;影响因素回归结果显示,城镇化、科技创新和环境规制能够促进减污降碳协同,人口集聚、产业结构则会抑制减污降碳,而经济发展水平、对外开放在三大城市群间表现出明显的时空异质性。基于此,从经济发展、社会进步、科技创新以及政策规制层面提出差异化的减污降碳协同治理策略,助力各城市群乃至长江经济带减污降碳目标的实现。

Taking 71 cities in the three major urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,the coupling coordination degree model is used for a measurement of the coordinated efforts of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the three urban agglomerations from 2011 to 2020,followed by an inquiry into the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors in each urban agglomeration by using GTWR model.The results indicate that during the research period,the overall coordination of pollution reduction and carbon reduction among the three major urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows an upward trend.By 2020,all three urban agglomerations have reached a coordinated state of pollution reduction and carbon reduction,with the degree of coordination in a descending order being the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration,and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The regression results of the influencing factors show that urbanization,scientific and technological innovation and environmental regulation can promote the synergy of pollution and carbon reduction,while population agglomeration and industrial structure can inhibit the reduction of pollution and carbon reduction.However,the level of economic development and opening up to the outside world exhibits a significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity among the three major urban agglomerations.Based on this,differentiated collaborative governance strategies have thus been proposed for pollution and carbon reduction from the perspectives of economic development,social progress,technological innovation,and policy regulation,so as to help achieve the pollution and carbon reduction goals of various urban agglomerations,even including the Yangtze River Economic Belt.