基于福建50年滑坡灾情数据的滑坡时序特征分析

Analysis of landslide temporal characteristics based on 50 years of landslide disaster data in Fujian Province

福建省山地多,年降雨量较丰富,降雨引起滑坡灾害多发。收集了福建省1969年—2018年近50年的已发滑坡灾情数据,提取已发滑坡时间和空间位置信息,建立时间序列模型,分析福建省近50年已发滑坡的时间特征。结果表明:采样福建省已发灾害数据模拟构建的ARIMA(1,2,1)时间序列模型,以4年为一个周期,可以有效地预测福建省崩塌滑坡年度发生的频次,经实际检验误差在±10次之内。

Fujian Province,with its numerous mountainous regions and plentiful annual rainfall,frequently experiences landslide disasters triggered by rainfall.This paper presents data from landslide disasters of Fujian Province from 1969 to 2018,extracts information on the date and spatial locations of these landslides,develops a temporal series model,and analyzes the temporal patterns of landslides in the province over the past 50 years.The results indicate that the ARIMA(1,2,1)time series model,constructed based on simulated disaster data from Fujian Province and with a four-year cycle,can effectively predict the annual frequency of collapses landslides in Fujian Province.Through Verified by real survey data,the error is within±10 times.