减税还是降费基于长期资本积累和代际公平的视角

Tax Reduction or Fee Reduction:Analysis Based on Long-Run Capital Accumulation and Intergeneration Redistribution

减税降费是供给侧结构性改革在财政政策方面的重要措施,但具体的减税和降费政策对宏观经济和代际分配的作用机制和结果存在差异。降低增值税税率和降低养老保险企业缴费率分别是实践中规模最大的减税和降费措施。本文构建了一个反映中国现行税费制度基本特征及约束条件的世代交叠模型,对比了这两项具体措施对宏观经济效率和代际公平的影响。理论模型的定性分析结果显示,这两项措施长期来看都有利于提高资本积累和产出。但在使用中国数据进行参数校准和数值模拟分析后,可以发现两者对经济效率和代际公平的影响存在较大差异。在经济效率方面,跟相同规模的减税相比,降费能更大幅度地提高长期产出;在代际公平方面,减税更有利于当代老年人,而降费则更有利于当代年轻人和未来代人。基于上述分析,对同时面临宏观经济下行压力和人口出生率下降压力的经济体,应把减税降费政策的着力点更多放在降低养老保险企业缴费率方面。

Tax and fee reductions are important components of China's supply-Side structural reform,each with distinct impacts on the macroeconomy and intergenerational redistribution.Among these reforms,decreasing the Value-Added Tax(VAT)has the most significant effect among the tax reductions,while lowering the employer's pension contribution rate accounts for the largest share among the fee reductions.Based on the characteristics of China's fiscal system,this paper uses an overlapping generations model to compare the macroeconomic and welfare effects of these two reforms.The findings from the comparative static analysis indicate that both reforms promote long-term capital accumulation and output growth.Based on data calibrated to the Chinese economy,simulation results show that if both tax and fee reductions lead to the same decrease in government revenue,the fee reduction results in greater capital accumulation and output increase.In terms of intergenerational welfare,while the tax reduction primarily benefits the initial old generation,the fee reduction more advantageously supports the current young population and future generations.The paper contributes to the existing literature in two ways.First,it broadens the discussion on tax and fee reduction reforms by incorporating fiscal policy coordination in a unified framework that includes various taxes and fees.When the government implements tax or fee reduction reforms,in order to maintain the predetermined pension benefit and to balance the social security account,some fiscal coordination measures are needed.For example,during the reform of lowering employers'pension contribution rate,the government may need to supplement the social security account with other fiscal revenues such as taxes to maintain predetermined pension benefits.Therefore,it is necessary to examine and compare the effects of the different reform measures in a unified framework.Second,it extends the literature on tax and fee reduction reforms by addressing intergenerational welfare redistribution.Both the tax and fee reduction reforms produce notable welfare redistribution effects among generations.We not only simulate and compare the effects on capital accumulation and output growth but also assess their effects on the welfare for the current and future generations.The paper has the following policy implications.First,in the context of an economic slowdown,both reducing the VAT and lowering employers'pension contribution rate can stimulate long-term economic growth.Second,based on China's current fiscal system and macroeconomic characteristics,if the government uses fiscal subsidies to maintain the predetermined pension benefits and balance the social security account,the reform of reducing the employer's pension contribution rate is more effective in promoting long-term economic growth.This approach also yields greater benefits for the current young population and future generations.Therefore,in an economy facing both economic downward pressure and a declining birth rate like China,prioritizing fee reduction reforms,specifically lowering employers'pension contributions,can better enhance macroeconomic performance and improve intergenerational redistribution.