小银行发挥优势了吗:村镇银行设立对城乡收入差距的影响研究

Are Small Banks Good:A Study on the Impact of Village Banks on the Urban-Rural Income Gap

基于金融发展对收入不平等影响的长期学术争论,本文从设立村镇银行这一“准自然实验”出发,评估了小银行对城乡收入差距的影响,并进一步探究了其传导机制和内在根源。在理论方面,构建城乡两部门资本配置模型,将设立村镇银行这一事件纳入金融配置体系进行分析,提出相应研究假说;在实证方面,考虑到村镇银行的发展历史脉络,整理出2010—2017年909个县的面板数据,使用渐进性双重差分的方法进行回归分析。研究发现:(1)从整体来看,设立村镇银行并不能帮助缩小城乡收入差距,这为相关领域的长期讨论提供了一个扎实的中国证据;(2)机制分析发现,涉农产业基础薄弱和县域银行业的同质化竞争,是村镇银行发生“使命漂移”,进而推动城乡收入差距扩大的重要原因;(3)村镇银行“使命漂移”现象导致有限的金融资源从涉农产业部门流出,进而使农村居民收入呈现下滑趋势。据此形成的政策启示是,应对村镇法人银行进行总量控制、结构调整,并引导其回归支农支小的最初定位,重点加强对村镇银行资产业务监管,在农业大县或金融欠发达区域进一步充分发挥村镇银行基层网点的作用。

There is an ongoing debate on the impact of financial development on income inequality.Some researchers argue that financial development can empower impoverished households and marginalized communities by improving their access to financial resources,potentially reducing income disparities.Conversely,other studies contend that financial development often exacerbates inequality,predominantly favoring high-income individuals and perpetuating a"winner-takes-all"scenario.Drawing from our theoretical model,we have developed an urban-rural two-sector model that examines the effects of village banks within the financial allocation system on the income divide between urban and rural areas.In the process of inclusive financial development,small-and medium-sized financial institutions such as village banks are prone to"mission drift".This drift,if unchecked,may widen the income gap between urban and rural communities,which is central to our argument.Conversely,if village banks effectively execute their agricultural and rural support policies,they can help reduce income disparities and address uneven development.Exploring the mechanisms at play,we identify that the weak foundation of agricultural industries at the county level and homogeneous competition among county banks contribute to this mission drift,widening the urban-rural income gap.To support our analysis with empirical data,we compiled a balanced panel dataset encompassing 909 counties from 2010 to 2017 and used a difference-in-differences regression analysis method to examine the historical development of village banks.Furthermore,to bolster the reliability of our conclusions,we have undertaken an array of robustness tests,placebo tests,and mechanism analyses.The main findings are as follows.First,village banks have not effectively reduced the income gap between urban and rural regions.Our basic regression analysis indicates that these banks are linked to an average 2.12% increase in the county-level urban-rural income disparity,providing solid empirical evidence from China.Second,mechanism analysis reveals that the weak foundation of agricultural industries and homogeneous competition among county banks are pivotal factors driving the mission drift of village banks,thereby widening the urban-rural income gap.Third,the mission drift diverts limited financial resources away from the agricultural sector,negatively affecting the income of rural residents.This paper offers several policy recommendations.First,we should continue to explore management systems that enforce quantitative control and a bottom-ranking elimination mechanism for village banks to reduce their contribute to inequality.Second,it is essential to steer village banks back to their core mission of supporting agriculture,rural development,and farmers.By incentivizing small-and medium-sized county banks to support the agricultural sector,we can stimulate the income of rural households to grow continuously.Third,regulatory guidance should be strengthened to ensure that the agricultural-related business of village banks exceeds the average level of the county's banking sector,while improving risk management capabilities among small-and medium-sized banking institutions.Fourth,in counties with a solid agricultural foundation or an underdeveloped banking sector,village banks and other small and medium-sized banks should be moderately encouraged to establish grassroots branches,enabling them to effectively support agriculture and small businesses.