欧亚地区秩序的“漂流”与重塑

The“Drift”and Reshaping of the Eurasian Regional Order

从21世纪第一个十年中期开始,深受俄罗斯影响的欧亚地区秩序日益呈现“漂流”态势,俄罗斯地区权威受到的内外挑战日增、地区秩序不稳。欧盟和北约事实上已成为冲击欧亚地区秩序的重要外部势力,改变了地区既有权力结构,提高了地区秩序塑造的成本。就欧亚地区秩序“漂流”的内部根源而论,俄罗斯与其他欧亚国家在地区公共产品的供给、地区秩序观、一体化的制度设计方面存在一定认知差异,这些差异随着俄罗斯的相对衰落和外部势力的干预而被强化。自俄乌冲突爆发后,欧亚国家可通过深化与中国的经济联系,加强欧亚经济联盟、集安组织与上合组织及金砖国家的合作,积极寻求地区合作的“最大公约数”,以改变欧亚地区秩序的“漂流”态势,重塑一个更加开放包容的欧亚地区秩序。

Since the mid-2000s,the Russia-led Eurasian regional order has been increasingly“adrift”,with internal and external challenges to Russia's regional authority on the rise and the regional order increasingly unstable.The EU and NATO have in fact become important external forces impacting on the Eurasian regional order,changing the existing power structure in the region and raising the cost of shaping the regional order.The internal causes of the“drift”in the Eurasian regional order are differences in perceptions between Russia and other Eurasian countries regarding the supply of regional public goods,the concept of regional order,and the institutional design of integration.Such differences have become more salient with the relative decline of Russia and the intervention of external forces.With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict,Eurasian countries can deepen their economic ties with China,strengthen cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union,the Collective Security Treaty Organization(CSTO),the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS,and actively seek the“largest common denominator”of regional cooperation.This will help change the“drift”and reshape a more open and inclusive Eurasian regional order.