地方政府债务与上市公司现金股利行为——基于隐性债务“城投债”的证据

Local Government Debt and Cash Dividend Behavior of Listed Companies:Based on Evidence of Municipal Investment Bonds

地方政府债务在挤占企业融资空间的同时,也加剧了企业经营环境的不确定性,致使企业经营现金短缺的可能性增大。本文以2012—2022年A股上市公司为样本,探究了上市公司是否通过调整现金股利策略来应对。实证研究发现,地方政府债务显著降低了当地上市公司的现金股利发放倾向和发放强度,且股利发放倾向在非国有性质的公司中会更低。影响机制分析表明,地方政府债务加剧了企业的融资约束和盈利波动性,抑制了当地上市公司现金股利发放。进一步研究发现,地方债务较高地区的上市公司通过低股利策略保留了更多的现金储备。本文从政府债务角度丰富了公司现金股利影响因素的研究,不仅拓展了地方政府债务微观经济后果的文献,还为通过化解地方隐性债务风险来解决企业现金分红的后顾之忧,提振投资者信心和活跃资本市场提供了政策启示。

Cash dividend,as one of the fundamental aspects of corporate financial management,serves as an important means for investors to obtain returns.It is also a key channel for fostering long-term investment perspectives in the capital market,enhancing market vitality,and increasing its attractiveness.However,the rapid expansion of local government debt directly impacts corporate cash dividend policies.This occurs for two main reasons:first,the large-scale local government debt amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations,casting a long-term shadow over economic growth prospects and creating greater uncertainty in the business environment;second,local government debt crowds out corporate financing,resulting in a decline in companies' financing capacity.These factors significantly increase the volatility of corporate earnings and the risk of operational capital shortages.Using A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022 as a sample,this study examines whether listed companies adjust their cash dividend strategies in response to local government debt.The empirical analysis reveals that local government debt(specifically municipal investment bonds) significantly reduces both the propensity and intensity of cash dividend payouts by companies in the region,with this effect being more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises.Additionally,the study finds that following the reform of the local debt management system,the negative impact of municipal investment bonds on corporate dividend policies has weakened,indicating that the government's governance of local implicit debt has had some positive effects.Mechanism analysis indicates that local government debt suppresses corporate cash dividend payouts by exacerbating financing constraints and earnings volatility.To enhance the robustness of the results,this study uses per capita healthcare expenditure in public fiscal spending as an instrumental variable for local government debt in a robustness check.Additionally,a Difference-in-Differences(DID) model is constructed using the 2015 local debt management reform as an exogenous shock event to address potential endogeneity concerns.As companies adopt low cash dividend policies to mitigate the potential shortage of operating capital caused by local government debt,regions with more severe local government debt tend to have companies that retain larger cash reserves.Therefore,this study further examines the relationship between the severity of local government debt and the cash reserves of local listed companies and confirms this hypothesis.The research findings indicate that government debt suppresses corporate cash dividend payouts.The main contributions of this study are as follows:First,it expands the research on the factors influencing corporate cash dividends from the perspective of government debt.While the impact of the macroeconomic environment on corporate dividend policies has garnered increasing attention in recent years,such as the effects of tax policy adjustments and economic policy uncertainty,few studies have investigated whether and how government debt affects corporate cash dividends.This study fills this gap in the literature.Second,this paper extends the research on the microeconomic consequences of local government debt by focusing on its impact on cash dividend policies.The research implications of this study are as follows:First,corporate cash dividend behavior is not only influenced by internal factors such as operational conditions and governance structure but is also significantly constrained by the external macroeconomic environment,such as local implicit government debt.Therefore,cash dividend distribution should be based on corporate autonomy,rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach in institutional design,which may be misaligned with the company's development stage and future growth plans.Second,a comprehensive regulatory system for local government debt should be established.At this stage,efforts should focus on controlling the risks associated with local government implicit debt,to prevent the transmission of these risks to enterprises.Third,for investors,particularly long-term investors,when making investment decisions in regions with high levels of local government debt,it is crucial to carefully assess the company's cash flow and dividend-paying capacity.