基于“源-荷”不确定性的配电网用电负荷分布式协同控制

Distributed Collaborative Control of Electricity Load in Distribution Networks Based on Source-Load Uncertainty

随着配电网建设运行规模的不断增大,形成了大量用电负荷控制问题,特别是在用电负荷数据分析中弱化了样本时序特征,造成了局部负荷特征获取不全,使配电网用电负荷预测系统无法维持电网能量的平衡性;在以往配电网用电负荷处理分配时很少考虑“源-荷”不确定性产生的影响,容易导致用电负荷分类识别概率过低、用电负荷预测出现较大误差,并长期存在发电成本过高、配电平衡度不足等一系列问题。针对上述情况,通过概率分布函数对“源”、“荷”两个方面的不确定性展开研究,设置由两个概率分布函数组成的多目标函数为协同出力平衡度设置约束条件,利用改进分群涡流搜索算法进行求解,得到用电负荷协同控制方案。测试结果显示,在17:00时,光伏装置1的功率为1050 kW;在11:00时,光伏装置2的功率为980 kW,基于“源-荷”不确定性均方根误差小于0.7%;而基于“源-荷”不确定性的方案成本为45.32万元,平衡度为0.94。基于“源-荷”不确定性的配电网用电负荷协同控制方法比未基于“源-荷”不确定性方案所达成的协同控制平衡度更高,协同控制技术也更为合理。

With the continuous increase in the scale of distribution network construction and operation,a large number of electricity load control problems have emerged,especially the weakening of sample time series characteristics in electricity load data analysis,resulting in incomplete acquisition of local load characteristics,making it impossible for the distribution network electricity load prediction system to maintain the balance of energy in the power grid.In the past,the impact of"source-load"uncertainty was also rarely considered in the distribution network electricity load processing and distribution,which can easily lead to low probability of electricity load classification recognition,significant errors in electricity load prediction,and long-term problems such as high generation costs and insufficient distribution balance.In response to the above situation,the uncertainty of"source"and"load"was conducted research through probability distribution functions.A multi objective function composed of two probability distribution functions was set as the constraint conditions for the coordinated output balance.The improved cluster eddy current search algorithm was used to solve the problem,and a coordinated control scheme for electricity load was obtained.The test results show that at 17:00,the power of photovoltaic device 1 is 1050 kW,at 11:00,the power of photovoltaic device 2 is 980 kW,based on the source-load uncertainty root-mean-square error of less than 0.7%.The cost of the scheme based on"source-load"uncertainty is 453200 yuan,and the balance degree is 0.94.The collaborative control method based on"source-load"uncertainty has a higher balance than the collaborative control method without"source-load"uncertainty,and the collaborative control technology is more reasonable.