中国区域绿色金融发展评估

Assessment of Regional Green Finance Development in China

针对区域绿色金融发展研究评估中测度维度与指标选取的多样化以及对地区均衡发展和动力机制的探索全面性不足等现实问题,构建绿色金融发展测度框架,计算中国区域绿色金融发展指数。在此基础上,进一步分析区域发展模式,采用Dagum基尼系数分解探讨地区不平等和空间差异现象,通过驱动因子的验证确定发展动力机制。结果表明:第一,中国区域绿色金融发展模式主要分为领先型、追随型、稳健型、潜力型四类。其中,领先型省份分布在东部沿海地区且指数均值最高;追随型省份克服生态问题后能够实现跨越性发展;稳健型省份指数波动范围最小,标准差仅有4%;潜力型省份年均增速最高,达23.25%。第二,中国绿色金融发展的地区失衡现象逐渐减弱,新八大经济区的区域间差异贡献率远高于区域内差异和超变密度贡献率。第三,中国绿色金融发展的主导动力来源是政策与策略支持。其中,三大沿海地区绿色金融发展主要靠经济增长带动,长江黄河流域的核心动力是环境规制与治理,西南与西北地区的共同动力是政策与策略支持。由此提出制度引导、先行先试和区域带动等完善中国区域绿色金融发展的政策建议。

The comparable and continuous green finance development index can help form a comprehensive and effective assessment system for regional green finance development in China at the theoretical level,and put forward effective suggestions from the perspective of green finance policies and cooperation in urban development at the practical level.However,looking at the development of green finance at home and abroad,the comprehensiveness of the measurement dimension and the diversity of the nature of indicators can be improved to some extent.At the same time,due to the lack of scientific selection of driving factors or instrumental factors,and the lack of comprehensive discussion of regional development inequality or difference,the development assessment of green finance has shortcomings in the exploration of driving mechanism and the analysis of regional balanced development.Based on this,this paper constructs an evaluation system for green finance development,calculates China’s regional green finance development index,analyzes regional development patterns,evaluates regional balanced development by using Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,and adopts the time-series global principal component method to extract the principal component with the highest load to verify driving factors and the development dynamic mechanism.This paper analyzes the development of green finance in different regions of China from the perspectives of contribution sources,spatial differences and dynamic evolution.The results show as follow.First,China’s regional green finance development mode can be divided into four categories.Leading-type regions are distributed in the eastern and coastal areas with the highest index mean,following-type regions can achieve leapfrog development after overcoming ecological problems,stable-type regions have the lowest index fluctuation range(standard deviation is only 4%),and potential-type regions have the highest average annual growth rate(about 23.25%).Secondly,the regional imbalance of green finance development in China has gradually weakened,and the contribution rate of inter-regional differences in the eight major economic zones is much higher than that of intra-regional differences and super-variable density.What’s more,policy and strategy support is the leading driving force for the development of green finance in China.Among them,the development of green finance in the three coastal areas is mainly driven by economic growth,the core driving force of the two river basins is environmental regulation and governance,and the common driving force of the southwest and northwest regions is policy and strategic support.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the development of China’s regional green finance,such as system guidance,pilot and regional driving.Compared with previous literatures,this paper mainly expands in the following three aspects.First,based on the incentive and regulation perspective of green behavior,an evaluation system for green finance development at the regional level in China is constructed,which covers a total of 6 first-level indicators and 28 second-level indicators from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives,in an attempt to objectively expand the measurement dimension and index nature of the current green finance development.Secondly,based on the development trend perspective of“leading-following-steady-potential”,the regional development model is analyzed,and the balanced development of green finance in various regions of China is evaluated from the perspective of space-time chain,so as to overcome the one-sided analysis in a single year and realize the comparison of spatial differences with time continuity.Thirdly,the contribution rate of each driving factor of green finance development is explored according to the scientifically calculated index weights,and the driving force behind regional and provincial green activities is comprehensively analyzed from the perspective of factor endowment and comparative advantage,thus further verifying the reliability of the development driving mechanism.