摘要
Background:The novel coronavirus disease(COVID-19)was first reported in Wuhan,China.The mass population mobility in China during the Spring Festival has been considered a driver to the transmission of COVID-19,but it still needs more empirical discussion.Methods:Based on the panel data from Hubei,China between January 6th and February 6th,2020,a random effects model was used to estimate the impact of population mobility on the transmission of COVID-19.Stata version 12.0 was used,and p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.Results:The COVID-19 was more likely to be confirmed within 11-12 days after people moved from Wuhan to 16 other prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province,which suggests a period of 11-12 days from contact to being confirmed.The daily confirmed cases and daily increment in incidence in 16 prefecture-level cities show obvious declines 9-12 days post adaptation of city lockdown at the local level.Conclusion:Population mobility is found to be a driver to the rapid transmission of COVID-19,and the lockdown intervention in local prefecture-level cities of Hubei Province has been an effective strategy to block the COVID-19 epidemic.
