农村人口老龄化与粮食安全:影响机制与实证检验

Rural Population Aging and Food Security:Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Evidence

基于2000—2021年全球155个国家的跨国面板数据,将农村人口老龄化与粮食安全的关系置于全球背景下,实证分析农村人口老龄化对粮食安全的影响、作用机制以及应对途径,并进一步剖析农村人口老龄化对不同人口红利阶段以及不同粮食自给率状态下国家粮食安全的异质性作用。研究发现,农村人口老龄化对粮食安全具有显著的负向影响且主要通过“老龄负担效应”和“粮食需求效应”两个途径实现。不同国家特征下,财政支农政策、农业技术研发投入和教育投入对缓解粮食安全问题的异质性作用结果显示:在前人口红利阶段国家和粮食进口国,财政支农政策对于缓解人口老龄化对粮食安全的不利影响更为明显;而在人口红利后期及后人口红利国家和粮食出口国,农业技术研发投入和教育投入对粮食安全的正向调节作用更为显著。

This study utilizes cross-national panel data from 155 countries spanning 2000-2021 to investigate the relationship between rural population aging and food security in a global context.It empirically analyzes the impact,mechanisms,and coping strategies of rural population aging on food security,and further examines the heterogeneous effects across different demographic dividend stages and states of food self-sufficiency.The findings reveal that rural population aging has a significant negative impact on food security,primarily through the″aging burden effect″and the″food demand effect.″The study highlights that fiscal support policies for agriculture,agricultural R&D investment,and education investment have varying impacts on mitigating food security issues under different national characteristics.Specifically,in countries at the early demographic dividend stage and food-importing countries,fiscal support policies are more effective in alleviating the adverse effects of population aging on food security.In contrast,in late demographic dividend countries and food-exporting countries,agricultural R&D investment and education investment play a more significant positive role in regulating food security.