摘要
目的了解2021年中国白内障疾病负担现状并对2022—2050年中国白内障的疾病负担发展趋势进行预测。方法从全球疾病负担研究数据库(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021)中获取了中国和全球白内障疾病负担指标数据,包括患病率、伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life year,DALY)和年龄标准化率(agestandardized rate,ASR)等。通过这些指标描述2021年中国和全球白内障疾病负担现状,并运用年估计百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change,EAPC)分析1990—2021年间中国白内障疾病负担的变化趋势。利用R4.2.3软件构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型,预测2022—2050年中国白内障的总体患病率和DALY变化情况。结果1990—2021年,全球白内障患者由4233.2[95%不确定区间(uncertain interval,UI):3740.3~4752.7]万人增加至10057.1(95%UI:8877.2~11403.3)万人,中国白内障患者由568.4(95%UI:491.8~651.4)万人增加至1978.5(95%UI:1695.0~2275.8)万人,分别增加了137.6%和248.1%。女性白内障患者的疾病负担指标均高于同时期的男性患者,疾病负担随着年龄增长而升高。全球和中国的白内障疾病负担指标在70~75岁达到峰值。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测结果显示,到2050年,中国男性白内障患者人数预计为3173.3万人,女性患者总数约为5456.1万人;男性白内障患者的DALY绝对数约为111.7万人年,女性患者约为242.8万人年。结论1990—2021年我国白内障的疾病负担有所增加,且女性高于男性。预测模型表明,未来三十年的年龄标化患病率将持续升高,这意味着中国白内障的负担仍然很高。白内障疾病负担是一个严峻的挑战,需要政府、医疗机构和社会各界共同努力,采取有效措施降低白内障的患病率和残疾率,保障人民健康。
Objective To understand the current disease burden of cataract in China in 2021,and predict the development trend of disease burden of cataract in China from 2022 to 2050.Methods The data of cataract disease burden in China and the world were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021).The data included prevalence,disability-adjusted life year(DALY),and age-standardized rate.These indicators were used to describe the current situation of the disease burden of cataract in China and the world in 2021,and the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was used to analyze the change trend of the disease burden of cataract in China from 1990 to 2021.Furthermore,a Bayesian ageperiod-cohort model was constructed using R 4.2.3 software to predict the overall prevalence and DALY changes for cataract in China from 2022 to 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the number of individuals with cataract globally increased from 42.332[95%uncertain interval(UI):37.403-47.527]million to 100.571(95%UI:88.772-114.033)million,while in China,the number increased from 5.684(95%UI:4.918-6.514)million to 19.785(95%UI:16.950-22.758)million,representing a 137.6%and 248.1%increase,respectively.The disease burden indicators for cataract were consistently higher in women than men during this period,and the disease burden increased with age.The peak burden for cataract in both global and Chinese populations was observed in the 70-75 age group.According to projections from a Bayesian age-period-cohort model,by 2050,the estimated number of men with cataract in China will be 31.733 million,and the number of women with cataract will be approximately 54.561 million.The predicted absolute number of DALY associated with cataract in men will be approximately 1.117 million per year,and the corresponding number for women will be approximately 2.428 million per year.Conclusion The disease burden of cataract in China has increased from 1990 to 2021,with a higher prevalence among women compared to men.Predictive models indicate that agestandardized prevalence rates will continue to rise over the next three decades,suggesting a persistent high burden of cataract in China.The escalating disease burden of cataract posed a significant challenge,necessitating concerted efforts from government,healthcare institutions,and society as a whole to implement effective measures to reduce cataract incidence and disability rates,ensuring the well-being of the population.
作者
黄可馨
陈庆锋
HUANG Kexin;CHEN Qingfeng(School of Information and Management,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning 530021,China;School of Computer,Electronics and Information,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)
出处
《数理医药学杂志》
CAS
2024年第12期888-898,共11页
Journal of Mathematical Medicine
关键词
白内障
疾病负担
患病率
伤残调整寿命年
Cataract
Disease burden
Prevalence
Disability-adjusted life year