房价水平与生育意愿:来自家庭杠杆率非对称效应的证据?

Housing Price and Fertility Intention:Evidence fromthe Asymmetric Effects of Household Leverage Ratio?

近年来房价下降使得许多高杠杆率家庭的债务风险凸显,其对居民生育意愿的影响是一个非常重要但易被忽视的问题。基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,从房价水平的家庭杠杆率非对称效应视角研究其对居民生育意愿的影响。结果表明:高房价对居民生育意愿的财富效应不存在,收入效应与替代效应的净效应为负,表现为显著的抑制作用。家庭杠杆率是房价水平影响居民生育意愿的重要作用机制,且存在高房价“债务弹性”与低房价“债务黏性”的非对称效应。房价水平对居民生育意愿的抑制作用在低收入、住房条件差等弱势群体中表现得更显著,成本压力效应更明显。

The decline in housing price in recent years has highlighted the debt risk of many highly leveraged households,and its impact on residents’fertility intention is a very important but easy-to-neglect issue.Using the 2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),this study examines the impact of housing price levels on household fertility intentions from the perspective of asymmetric effects of household leverage.The results indicate that the wealth effect of high housing price on residents’fertility intention does not exist,and the net effect of income effect and substitution effect is negative,showing a significant inhibitory effect.Household leverage is an important mechanism by which the housing price level affects residents’fertility intention,and there is an asymmetric effect of“debt elasticity”of high housing price and“debt stickiness”of low housing price.The impact of housing price on the fertility intention has a more significant inhibitory effect on vulnerable groups such as those with low income and poor housing conditions,and has a more notable cost-pressure effect.