“双碳”目标下我国农林业碳排放效率的时空演变及影响因素分析

Analysis of spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the carbon emission efficiency of China's agroforestry industry under dual carbon target

为实现农林业的碳减排目标,需要减少传统农业和林业的资源投入,提高生产效率和碳汇能力。计算农林业碳排放效率并分析其关键影响因素,是实现“双碳”目标的关键步骤。文章基于低碳经济理论,运用超效率模型和空间杜宾模型,测算了2000—2021年中国31个省份的农林业碳排放效率,并研究了其时空变化及影响因素。研究发现:(1)2000—2021年间我国31个省份的农林业碳排放效率平均值为0.70,农林业碳排放效率年均增长率为9.80%。(2)农林业研发创新对本地农林业碳排放效率具有显著的抑制作用,并对周边地区产生显著的溢出效应。(3)提升农林业碳汇能力对提高农林业的碳排放效率具有显著正向影响。此外,林业总产值和城镇化率的增加均对本地农林业碳排放效率产生显著正向影响。增加林业用地面积和农村劳动力对周边地区的农林业碳排放效率产生显著虹吸效应,城镇化率对周边地区的农林业碳排放效率产生显著溢出效应。本文的学术创新主要体现在2个方面:(1)引入农林业研发创新这一重要投入要素,探讨其对农林业碳排放效率的影响。(2)创新性地使用植物新品种权申请量来衡量农林业研发创新。政策启示:建立有效的农林业碳排放与碳汇监测报告体系并鼓励农林业创新研发;增强农业和林业的碳汇能力;将农业碳汇和林业碳汇全面纳入中国碳排放权交易市场。

In order to achieve the carbon emission reduction objectives in agroforestry industry,it is imperative to decrease conventional resource inputs within these sectors,enhance production efficiency,and bolster carbon sequestration capabilities.The computation of carbon emission efficiency of agroforestry industry,along with the analysis of its crucial influencing factors,represent essential strides toward fulfilling dual carbon target.Grounded in the low-carbon economy theory,this paper employed the super-efficiency model and spatial Durbin model to evaluate the carbon emission efficiency of agroforestry industry across 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021.The research delved into the spatiotemporal fluctuations and influential elements within this realm.The research revealed that:(1)The mean carbon emission efficiency of agroforestry industry in the 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021 stood at 0.70,with an average yearly growth rate of 9.80%.(2)Innovations within agroforestry industry significantly restrained local carbon emission efficiency and prompted noteworthy cascading impacts on neighboring regions.(3)Augmenting the carbon sequestration capacity of agroforestry industry distinctly propelled the enhancement of their carbon emission efficiency.Furthermore,amplifications in the total value of forestry output and urbanization rates markedly bolstered the local carbon emission efficiency of agroforestry industry.The expansion of forestry land area and rural labor exerted substantial vacuum effects on the carbon emission efficiency of the agroforestry industry within surrounding areas,while urbanization rates yielded notable spill-over effects on the carbon emission efficiency of these sectors in neighboring regions.The scholarly contribution of this study lay in the introduction of innovation in agroforestry industry as a pivotal input factor and the examination of its impact on the carbon emission efficiency in these sectors,as well as the innovative use of the quantity of new plant variety patents applications as a metric to gauge the level of innovation in agroforestry industry.The policy implications encompassed establishing a robust monitoring and reporting framework for carbon emissions and sequestration in agroforestry industry,promoting innovation and R&D endeavors within these sectors,fortifying their carbon sequestration capabilities,and comprehensively integrating agricultural and forestry carbon sequestration into China's carbon emissions trading marketplace.