长江经济带新型城镇化与空气污染的脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis of New Urbanization and Air Pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

城市的快速发展带来了污染物的集中。为了协调经济发展与环境污染之间的关系,中国制定并实施了新型城镇化战略。但是,对新型城镇化与空气污染的具体关系的研究尚不充足,仍不清楚空气污染是否与新型城镇化脱钩。因此,基于2009—2021年长江经济带108个城市的面板数据,构建了人口、经济、空间、社会和生态五个维度的新型城镇化评价指标体系。利用Tapio脱钩模型和追赶脱钩模型探讨了新型城镇化与PM_(2.5)浓度之间的脱钩关系和区域异质性。结果表明:(1)长江经济带PM_(2.5)浓度在2013年后持续减少。(2)新型城镇化的驱动力主要来自经济城镇化和社会城镇化。(3)PM_(2.5)浓度与新型城镇化之间长期保持脱钩状态,但在短期尺度内存在脱钩和负脱钩的交替现象。(4)大部分追赶城市对模范城市的追赶并不理想,地区间的不平衡现象还将长期持续。

The rapid development of cities has led to a concentration of pollutants in these cities.To reconcile economic development and environmental pollution,China has developed and implemented a new urbanization strategy.However,research on the specific relationship between new urbanization and air pollution is insufficient,and it is still unclear whether air pollution has decoupled from new urbanization.Therefore,based on the panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)from 2009 to 2021,this paper constructs a new urbanization evaluation index system with five dimensions:demographic,economic,spatial,social and ecological.The decoupling relationship and regional heterogeneity between new urbanization and PM_(2.5)concentration were explored by using the Tapio decoupling model and catch-up decoupling model.The results show that:(1)PM_(2.5)concentrations in the Yangtze River Economic Zone have continued to decrease since 2013.(2)The driving force of new urbanization mainly comes from economic urbanization and social urbanization.(3)The decoupling between PM_(2.5)concentrations and new urbanization has been maintained for a long time,but there are alternating phenomena of decoupling and negative decoupling on the short-term scale.(4)The catching-up effect of most catching-up cities on model cities is not good,and the imbalance between regions will continue for a long time.