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油气储量增长趋势预测方法综述

Review of the reserve-growth trend forecast for oil and gas
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摘要 油气储量是重要战略资源,其直接关系到未来的油气产量,加强对油气储量增长趋势的认识和判断至关重要。油气储量增长趋势预测是一项具有前瞻性的研究工作,其预测结果将直接影响未来油气的勘探和投资方向。为了明确油气储量增长趋势预测的研究进展和发展现状,基于国内外前人研究成果,结合最新的研究进展,回顾油气储量增长预测方法的发展历程,总结油气储量增长预测的各类方法模型,探讨影响储量增长的主控因素,展望未来油气储量增长预测研究的发展趋势。结果表明,储量增长预测方法主要分为统计法、专家评估法、类比法和机器学习法这4大类,各类方法具有不同的适用性和优缺点;预测方法中以统计法中的多旋回Hubbert、多旋回Gauss模型和修正Arrington模型应用最为广泛;油气储量增长受油气成藏地质条件、油气地质理论发展与勘探开发技术突破、勘探投入与勘探阶段和国家政策等因素影响。提出油气储量增长趋势预测的未来发展方向。以油气富集模式为指导、以储量序列为基础的地质综合分析是预测理念的发展方向;油气资源空间分布定量预测和机器学习是预测技术的发展方向;建立全油气系统下的储量预测是未来预测体系的发展方向。该研究可对未来油气储量增长预测工作提供指导和借鉴意义。 Oil and gas reserves are directly affect future oil and gas production.Therefore,it is crucial to strengthen the understanding and judgment of the growth trend of oil and gas reserves.The prediction of the growth trend of oil and gas reserves is a forward-looking prediction work,and its prediction results will affect the future exploration and investment direction of oil and gas.To systematically clarify the research progress and development status of predicting the growth trend of oil and gas reserves,this paper systematically reviewed the development process of oil and gas reserve-growth prediction methods,summarized various methods for predicting the growth trend of oil and gas reserves,discussed the main controlling factors affecting the prediction process,and proposed the future development direction of the reserve growth trend forecast of oil and gas based on the review of the literature.The results indicate that traditional forecast methodologies are mainly divided into statistical methods,expert evaluation methods,and analogy methods,which have different applicability,advantages,and disadvantages.The most widely used prediction methods are the multi-cycle Hubbert,multi-cycle Gauss model,and modified Arrington model in statistical methods.Such factors,including the geological conditions of hydrocarbon accumulation,the development of hydrocarbon geological theory and the breakthrough in exploration and development technology,exploration investment and exploration stage,and national policies,control the growth trend of oil and gas reserves.Finally,this study points out the future development direction of the reserve-growth trend forecast of oil and gas.The comprehensive geological analysis method guided by hydrocarbon enrichment mode and based on reserves series is the development direction of the prediction method.The quantitative prediction of the spatial distribution of hydrocarbon resources and machine learning is the development direction of prediction technology.Establishing reserve prediction under the whole petroleum system is the development direction of future prediction systems.This article can provide guidance and reference for future reserve-growth prediction study of oil and gas.
作者 王馨佩 刘成林 冯德浩 杨裕如 吴欣松 朱杰 郭元岭 WANG Xinpei;LIU Chenglin;FENG Dehao;YANG Yuru;WU Xinsong;ZHU Jie;GUO Yuanling(National Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;College of Geosciences,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;Oil and Gas Resources Strategy Research Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100086,China;Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083,China)
出处 《世界石油工业》 2024年第6期55-65,共11页 World Petroleum Industry
基金 国家重点研发计划项目“富氦天然气成藏机制及氦资源分布预测技术”(2021YFA0719000)。
关键词 油气储量 增长趋势预测 统计法 储量增长控制因素 多旋回模型 reserve of oil and gas growth trend forecast statistical methods influencing factors of increasing reserves multi-cycle model
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