双循环视角下东北地区物流业与经济发展耦合协调研究

Research on Coupling Relationship between Logistics Industry and Economic Development in Northeast China:A Dual Cycle Perspective

基于“国内国际双循环”的战略构想和“东北海陆大通道”的政策实施,物流业与经济的发展对于区域自身及与外部环境联动的影响尤为重要。鉴于东北地区与俄罗斯、日本、韩国等东北亚国家的交往十分密切,从内部经济与外部经济两个维度出发,运用熵值法、耦合协调度和障碍度模型对东北三省一区的区域经济与物流业协调发展态势进行分析,采用修正的引力模型测算东北地区与东北亚国家之间经济与物流业的引力强度。结果表明:在国内国际双循环的大背景下,东北地区区域经济与物流业呈现出较好的协调发展态势。其中,辽宁省的表现尤为突出,其外向型经济与物流的联动强度大幅领先,与东北亚国家的交往也更为紧密。因此,建议将辽宁省作为东北三省一区的核心区域,并发挥其在东北海陆大通道建设中的引领带动作用。

In view of the strategic conception of the dual circulation of domestic and international markets and the construction of the“Northeast Land-sea Corridor”,the coupling and coordinated development of logistics industry and economy is particularly important to the regional development of Northeast China.Seeing that Northeast China is geographically and commercially close to Russia,Japan,and South Korea,we studied in-depth the coordinated development of regional economy and logistics in Northeast China and the intensity of the economic and logistics tie between Northeast China and Northeast Asian countries from the two dimensions of internal and external economy.Focusing on the economic and logistics index system of Jining,Liaoning,Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia,we used the entropy value method to determine the weights of relevant variables and accurately measure the comprehensive development level of regional economy and logistics industry.Also,by using the coupling coordination degree model and obstacle degree model,we analyzed the coordinated development trend of regional economy and logistics industry in said region,explored the evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination between the two from the space-time dimension,and analyzed the obstacle factors,hoping to provide scientific support for the coordinated development of the region.Besides,we used the revised gravity model to estimate the gravity intensity of the economy and logistics industry between Northeast China and Northeast Asian countries from 2013 to 2020 and analyzed the dynamic changes to the external economy and logistics industry of the region.The results show that regional economy and logistics industry in Northeast China show sound coordinated development trend in the dual cycle pattern,among which Liaoning is particularly outstanding.As an important part of Northeast China,Liaoning is ahead of competitors by a large margin in terms of the linkage intensity between export-oriented economy and logistics and has frequent exchanges with Northeast Asian countries.Through the study,it is found that he region is coordinated and stable in development as a whole,but there are significant regional differences,which is affected by factors such as international trade environment.Accordingly,we make the following recommendations.Firstly,it is necessary to balance internal and external demand and enhance the resilience of local supply chains.Second,the core role of Liaoning should be fully utilized in the construction of the Northeast Land-sea Corridor.Thirdly,we should strengthen policy guidance and support to promote the optimal allocation of resources.Fourthly,we should promote economic and trade exchanges with Northeast Asian countries,expand cooperation scope and raise cooperation levels.