后发追赶情境下机会窗口研究的特征和前沿趋势——基于2001—2023年国内核心期刊论文的可视化分析

Characteristics and emerging trends in windows of opportunity research within latecomer catch-up scenarios:Visual analysis based on domestic core journal articles from 2001 to 2023

在经济全球化和科技产业快速变革的背景下,后发追赶已成为学者们观察后发国家或企业成长并走向前沿过程的一个独特视角。机会窗口为后发者利用技术经济范式的转变实现追赶提供了有利时机,学者们对机会窗口的研究为国内后发追赶现象的研究做出了理论贡献并提供了实践启示。以中国知网(CNKI)2001—2023年国内核心期刊论文为数据来源,利用CiteSpace软件绘制后发追赶情境下机会窗口研究的可视化图谱,探索其文献特征和前沿趋势。研究发现:基于国际理论研究进展和丰富的国内企业后发追赶案例实践,国内机会窗口相关研究大致可以分为探索积累期和爆发成长期2个阶段,2017年后研究主题的发文量呈明显增长趋势;研究机构以大学为主,核心作者具有较高的活跃度和影响力,已经形成较强凝聚力的研究团队;研究热点聚焦后发追赶情境下机会窗口的形成机理及影响因素、机会窗口的把握和应用、技术跨越和创新模式等,研究前沿则聚焦技术跨越、新兴产业、技术范式、后发企业、技术赶超、国产替代等几方面,国产替代和技术赶超仍将是未来几年机会窗口主题研究的前沿领域。经济和技术追赶情境下机会窗口研究具有多学科交叉综合的特点,未来应进一步完善和拓展研究方法。同时,应鼓励跨行业、跨学科研究及研究机构之间的合作,深化对中国情景下后发企业追赶和机会窗口内涵和特征的研究。

Economic globalization has provided vast opportunities and market spaces for enterprises in developing countries,but it has also intensified competition and posed significant challenges.The concept of‘latecomer catching-up’refers to the process by which relatively backward countries or regions use rapid learning,technological innovation,and institutional reforms to catch up with and surpass advanced countries in various fields such as economics,technology,and society.In this context,the concept of‘window of opportunity’has been introduced,initially referring to the favorable timing for latecomers to leverage paradigm shifts in technology.Currently,a window of opportunity generally refers to changes in the technological,market,and institutional environments that provide catching-up opportunities for developing countries and enterprises.This study utilizes CiteSpace software to conduct bibliometric and knowledge mapping analysis on 197 relevant papers published in core journals indexed in China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI)from 2001 to 2023.The aim is to explore the characteristics and frontier trends of research on windows of opportunity in the context of latecomer catching-up.The research methods include:The study selected articles from CNKI,using‘window of opportunity’as the primary search term and‘policy window’‘technology window’‘market window’and‘catch-up window’as supplementary terms.To ensure the quality and relevance of the data,the selection was limited to core journals recognized in China,such as those listed in the Peking University Core Journal Directory,CSSCI,and AMI.Manual screening was conducted to exclude irrelevant articles.Using CiteSpace,the study performed keyword co-occurrence,time trend analysis,and burst detection to explore the relationships between articles,display evolutionary trends,and reveal research hotspots and frontiers.The results were presented in visual maps to better understand the development trajectory and predict future research directions.The study mapped the collaboration networks of authors and institutions to identify key contributors and influential research teams.This helped in understanding the dynamics of research collaboration and the formation of research clusters.The main conclusions of the study include:Exploration and Accumulation Phase is 2001—2016:The first research paper on the window of opportunity appeared in 2001,with only 3 publications that year,all focusing on technological paradigms.This period saw a relatively slow progression in research,with the number of publications gradually increasing and stabilizing around 9 per year by the mid-2010s.Key events during this period included China s accession to the WTO in 2001,which accelerated domestic enterprise development,and the release of the‘Made in China 2025’plan in 2015,which emphasized technological innovation and industrial upgrading.Explosive growth phase is 2017—2023:from 2017 onwards,the number of publications began to increase significantly,marking a rapid development phase in window of opportunity research.This growth was driven by both international theoretical advancements and the success stories of Chinese enterprises in catching up and surpassing their competitors.The peak years were 2022 and 2023,with 26 publications each year,indicating that the field has matured and gained widespread attention.Notable high-productive authors include Jia Genliang,Wu Xiaobo,Liu Xuelin,and Peng Xinmin,who have made significant contributions to the field.These authors have formed influential research teams,and their collaborations have been crucial in advancing the understanding of windows of opportunity.Leading research institutions include the School of Economics at Renmin University of China,the School of Management at Zhejiang University,the Business School at Ningbo University,and the School of Economics and Management at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.These institutions have produced a substantial number of high-quality research papers and have formed collaborative networks with other leading institutions.From the perspective of research institutions,studies on opportunity windows mainly focus on universities and specialized social science research institutions,with less independent research and participation from enterprises.Cooperation and exchange between institutions need to be further strengthened.Research Hotspots:Cluster and co-occurrence network analysis of keywords reveal that the main research hotspots under the context of latecomer catch-up in the theme of opportunity windows concentrate on‘technological catching-up’‘technological leapfrogging’‘emerging industries’‘influencing factors’‘innovation-driven development’‘dynamic capabilities’and‘domestic substitution’.From the temporal perspective of keyword emergence maps‘domestic substitution’and‘technological leapfrogging’will be important frontier trends in the research theme of opportunity windows over the next few years.Future research directions:combining perspectives from economics,management,sociology,and other disciplines to gain a more comprehensive understanding of windows of opportunity.The paper increases the proportion of empirical studies to validate theoretical assumptions and enhance the scientific rigor and practical applicability of the research,and strengthens collaboration with international scholars to draw on experiences from other countries and enrich the theory and practice of windows of opportunity.