摘要
气候变化背景下极端高温天气对人群健康带来极大挑战。高温健康风险的地理分布不均,因此,进行空间异质性评估对于识别高风险区域和指导空间规划至关重要。该文以步行指数来评估人们在户外活动中遭受高温的可能性,并构建高温健康风险评估体系。以南京市主城区为研究对象,从精细化尺度定量评估高温健康风险的空间分布,精准识别高风险区域及主导风险因子。结果表明:①南京主城区步行指数整体呈“内高外低、多核心”的空间格局,高步行指数区具有较高的高温健康风险。②高温危险性、暴露性、敏感性和适应能力在空间分布上存在明显的异质性。高危险性区域集中于高密度建成区和工业用地,城市中心区域呈“高暴露、高敏感、高适应”特征、外围区域则相反。③高风险区域的主导因子类型在空间上呈圈层性:中心区域以高暴露性为主、过渡区域风险因素为综合,外围区域以低适应能力为主。该研究依据主导风险因子提出韧性提升路径,以期为降低城市高温健康风险提供参考。
Extreme heat in the context of climate change poses a great challenge to population health,and since heat health risks are not spatially homogeneous,heat health risk assessment is an important way to effectively identify high-risk areas and implement differentiated guidelines for spatial planning.Walk score is used to measure the likelihood of people being exposed to outdoor heat and a heat health risk assessment system is constructed accordingly.Taking the main urban area of Nanjing as an example,the spatial distribution characteristics of heat health risk are quantitatively evaluated from a refined scale,and high-risk areas and dominant risk factors are precisely identified.The results show that:①The overall spatial structure of walk score in the main urban area of Nanjing is“high inside and low outside,multi-core spatial”,and the areas with high walk score have higher heat health risk.②There are obvious heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of heat hazard,exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity.High-hazard areas are concentrated in high-density built-up areas and industrial land.The central areas of city are characterized by“high exposure,high sensitivity and high adaptability”and the peripheral areas are characterized by“low exposure,low sensitivity and low adaptability”.③The spatial layout of the high-risk areas reflects the circles:the central area is dominated by high exposure,the transition area is dominated by synthesis,and the peripheral area is dominated by low adaptive capacity.This study proposes short-term resilience enhancement pathways and long-term resilience enhancement pathways based on dominant risk factors,in order to provide references for reducing urban heat health risk.
作者
张钰佳
翟国方
何仲禹
ZHANG Yujia;ZHAI Guofang;HE Zhongyu(School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)
出处
《灾害学》
北大核心
2025年第1期53-60,共8页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
日本学术振兴会项目“中国における災害時パニックならびに災害時クレーズの発生要因についての研究(中国灾害情境下恐慌行为及其危害机制相关研究)”18K03022
城市系统韧性功能提升关键技术研究与应用(2023YFC3805200)2023YFC3805204。
关键词
高温健康风险
风险评估
韧性
行为暴露
步行指数
南京市
heat health risk
risk assessment
resilience
behavioural exposure
walk score
Nanjing City