农话预测方法之研究

An approach on forecasting methods for rural-phone development

针对当前农话预测中存在的方法单一、精度低、实用性差等实际问题,提出了以市话预测结果为依据,合理制订市话与农话发展比例,求出农话预测总数,再按分摊系数分摊,从而预测各基层农话发展趋势的方法;给出农话预测数学模型及一个应用实例。

To counter many problems in current rural-phone forecasting, such as methods are unilateral, low-precise, poor-practical etc. , a new method for forecasting the developping tendency of rural-phone at basic units is proposed. This method results from four steps; take the results of city-phone forecasting as reference; rationally determine the developping proportion divided between city-phone and rural-phone; calculate the total number of forcasting rural-phone; according to distributing factor distribute the total number among rural basic units.Then mathematical modelof rural-phone forecasting and the example of its application is shown.