中国经济增长模型的设定:1952—1998

The Specification of China's Economic Growth Model:1952—1998

现代经济增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长吗 ?如果能 ,那么哪类经济增长理论能比较好地刻画我国的经济增长呢 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文从实证和理论两个方面展开讨论。在实证上 ,本文采用Jones( 1 995)实证检验新增长理论的方法 ,针对各类经济增长理论的核心特征 ,实证分析了 1 952— 1 998年间我国经济增长的典型事实 ,结果发现这些典型事实明显地拒绝了新古典增长理论和R&D类型增长理论 ,相对而言 ,比较支持AK类型增长理论。另外 ,我们还发现以综合要素生产率测量的技术进步 ,不是我国1 952—1 998年间经济增长的引擎。在理论上 ,本文从“边干边学”的角度 ,把“探索适合我国国情的经济建设道路”纳入经济增长模型 ,证明了其本身可以作为我国经济增长的引擎 ;同时回答了为什么AK类型增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长。

Can modern growth theories explain the facts of China's economic growth? If so, what kind of growth theory is more suitable for China's economic growth? Empirically, we use the general method for testing endogenous growth theory proposed by Jones (1995), and found that neoclassical economic growth models and R&D-based endogenous growth models are strongly rejected by time series evidences, while AK-based endogenous growth models are reasonably consistent with the stylized facts of China's economic growth. We also found that technical progress measured by total factor productivity is not the engine of China's economic growth. Theoretically, we incorporate “learning by doing” into Solow model, and argued the engine of China's economic growth and the reason of fitness of AK-based endogenous growth models to China's economic growth.