因子分析:中国的金融风险及应对策略

Factor Analysis:China's Financial Risks and their Countermeasures

中国现行的金融风险预警方法多属于综合评分法 ,采用因子多变量统计分析这一数学统计方法 ,选取 5个方面的17个指标作为中国金融风险预警的原始指标 ,对中国金融风险的现状进行定量分析得出的初步结论量是 :中国金融运行于高风险区间 ;金融风险不仅与资本市场现状相关 ,也与近年实行的积极的财政政策效应相关 ;外国投机资本对中国货币金融市场尚不构成严重冲击。对此 ,应采取相应的对策措施 ,防范和规避金融风险 ,保证中国经济和金融体系的健康运行。

Most of the existing forewarning method of financial risks in China are comprehensive assessments, and does not involve the use of factorial multivariate statistical analysis. The preliminary results of the quantitative analysis of the current Chinese financial risks, selecting 17 indicators in 5 aspects as the original indicators, show that China's finance operates in the high-risk area, that financial risks correlate not only with the existing capital market situation but also with the effect of the positive fiscal policy in recent years, and that foreign speculative capital does not yet amount to a severe impact on the Chinese monetary and financial markets. Corresponding countermeasures should be taken to provide against and avoid financial risks and safeguard the sound operation of the Chinese economic and financial system.