中国人口项目实施的效果与宏观政策环境

Achievements and Implementation Environment of China's Population Programme

中国生育率变动的曲折有政策的原因 ,但更与政策实施的宏观环境有关 ,或者说我国人口政策对人口转变的作用随着外部政策实施环境的变化而变化。在此分析中国生育率变动的阶段性特征和我国计划生育在不同实施阶段的整体外部环境的变化 ,一种有效的社会政策除了其本身的公平性和合理性以外 ,对政策执行环境和政策实施手段的充分考虑是必不可少的。我国 2 0世纪 70年代末 80年代初“独生子女政策”

The population policy is closely related to Chinas fertility transition. However, not only the policy itself, but also the implementation environment of the population programme is relevant. The article examines the major characteristics of Chinas fertility transition in different periods of time, together with social changes affecting the programme operation. It argues that the implementation environment of Chinas population policy is jointly determined by basic socio-economic conditions, political and institutional arrangement, government function and enforcement capacity, and cultural and social norms. A successful social policy, besides its fairness and rationality, should take these environmental situations into consideration. It concludes that one of the main shortcomings of the launch of the 'one child policy' in the late 1970s and thereafter is lack of full grasp of changes in these implementation environment.