摘要
针对铁路运价波动及优质优价客、货列车比例的不断增加 ,描述了铁路客、货运收入率的波动过程 ,建立了铁路建设项目经济后评价的随机风险模型 ,借助模拟技术 ,以某一铁路建设项目为对象计算了各种经济后评价随机指标 。
Aimed at the fluctuating of transport price and the continuously increasing proportion of passenger or cargo trains which provide high quality & low price service, this paper describes the fluctuating process of the passenger traffic rate and cargo freight rate in railway respectively. It establishes the stochastic risk model of economic post evaluation of railway construction project. With the help of computer simulated technology, all kinds of economic post evaluation stochastic indexes of a railway construction project are proposed, which provides a new method to post evaluate objectively the economic risk for railway construction project.
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第6期6-10,共5页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
铁道部软科学研究计划项目 (2 0 0 0 F0 0 9)
关键词
运价波动
铁路建设项目
经济风险后评价
随机模型
railway
passenger traffic rate
cargo freight rate
stochastic model
economic risk
post evaluation
