摘要
目的 建立隧道工矽肺危险度评价模型 ,预测矽肺发病规律。方法 调查有关工程局 5 4 82名接尘工人的接尘史、隧道粉尘资料和矽肺病人的诊断日期 ;应用Kaplan Meier方法初步估计累积患病率关于累积接尘量的曲线 ;应用样条函数方法拟合曲线。结果 建立了矽肺的危险度评价模型 ;提出矽尘作业30年不发生矽肺的粉尘最高容许浓度建议值 0 2 1mg/m3 ;在平均粉尘浓度 2 0 4 7mg/m3 下工作 30年 ,矽肺累积患病率预计为 11 1% ;接尘工龄 30年 ,累积患病率控制为 0 5 %时 ,容许浓度为 1 14mg/m3 ;累积患病率控制为 1%时 ,容许浓度为 2 0 6mg/m3 。结论 建立的模型具有实用价值 ,得到的结果可以为行政管理部门制定规章制度、保护工人的健康提供决策依据。
Objective To develop a risk assessment model for silicosis in tunnellers and to predict the incidence pattern.Methods Dust exposure histories of \{5 482\} tunnellers,dust monitoring data and diagnostic dates of silicotics were collected and investigated.Kaplan\|Meier method was used to prepare the primary curve estimation of cumulative prevalence rate(CPR)vs the dust exposure followed by the spline function to fit the curve.Results A risk assessment model for silicosis was developed.The suggested maximum allowable concentration(MAC)of dust would be \{0\^21 mg/m 3 ,under which no silicosis would occur after exposed for 30 years.However,working under current dust concentration(\{20\^47 mg/m 3 )for 30 years,the CPR would be 11\^1%.If the CPR was set at 0\^5%with 30 years exposure,the MAC should be \{1\^14 mg/m 3 ,and \{2\^06 mg/m 3 when CPR at 1%.Conclusions Results suggested that the model was reasonable and practical and could serve as a scientific basis for regulation making to protect workers health.
出处
《工业卫生与职业病》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第6期352-354,共3页
Industrial Health and Occupational Diseases