中国旱灾分维及其灾情演变趋势研究

On the fractal dimensions characters and trend of drought in China

根据分形理论,首先分析了中国旱灾中的分形结构,然后运用常规统计方法分析了中国旱灾灾情的趋势,在此基础上探讨了对我国实施可持续发展战略的有益启示。

According to the fractal theory,the fractal character of drought in China is preliminarily discussed in this paper, and the trend of drought in China is discussed too.Some conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)The fractal dimensions character of drought exists in China,and the fractal dimension of drought in Huabei is 0878?4, that of Dongbei is 0816?7, and that of Huanan is 0842?8, etc(2)The fractal dimensions of different level drought in different regions in China are calculated,and the relationships between the whole fractal dimensions and the average fractal dimensions for different level drought in different regions are discussed too(3)The trend of drought in China is also opened out,thus, if we continue the unsustainable policy,the drought may not be controlled in someday in China