山东夏季降水量场预测模型研究及预测试验

Study of Summer Rainfall Prediction in Shandong Province and Its Experiment

从预测山东夏季降水场的需要出发 ,用山东 1 96 1～ 2 0 0 1年夏季降水资料 ,研究了山东夏季降水的基本分布型式及其与北半球 50 0hPa月平均高度、大气环流特征量及北太平洋海温之间关系。结果表明 :不同的分布型存在不同的前期预测强信号。以这些强信号为主要预报因子结合考虑降水趋势振荡 ,构建出山东夏季降水场预测模型 ,并进行了预测试验。

Based on the data from 1961 to 2001 the basic patterns of the summer rainfall in Shandong and its relationships with,the North Hemisphere height of 500hPa,atmospheric circulation cha -racteristics, and the North Pacific SST are investigated respectively. The results show that there are strong signals in previous stage in the different patterns. Regarding the strong signals as main predictors and combining them with rainfall oscillation, a statistical prediction model of summer rainfall in shandong has been built. Finally, the prediction experiments are carried out.