用太阳活动拟合近2000年的温度变化

The Air Temperature Change in the Past 2000 Years Simulated Using Solar Activity Indices

利用两个反映太阳活动的指标—太阳黑子相对数及太阳黑子周期长度—来拟合近 2 0 0 0年我国的温度变化 ,其结果与近 2 0 0 0年 ,特别是近 70 0年来温度变化的总趋势基本一致。同时拟合了 12 0年来北半球温度的演变 ,结果表明 :太阳活动是引起 10 1年以上气温变化的基本因素 ,近十多年来温室气体的作用似乎不可忽略。

The Chinese temperature change in the past 2000 years was simulated using the sunspot number and the sunspot cycle length. The trend of simulated temperature, especially in the past 700 years, basically consists with that in the previous studies. In addition, the temperature change over the Northern Hemisphere in the past 120 years is also simulated. The results indicate that the solar activity is the basic factor influencing the temperature change over 10 year time scale, and the action of greenhouse gas may not be overlooked in the past 10 years or more.