贵州夏季旱涝短期气候预测模型研究

Study on Short-Range Climatic Prediction Models of Summer Server Drought and Flood in Guizhou

对贵州夏季严重旱涝的短期气候预测因子进行了分析研究 ,确定了用东亚大槽和北美东岸大槽的异常配置建立的夏季旱涝预测信号等 5个预测因子 ,并依据这些预测指标建立了贵州旱涝短期气候预测模型。预测模型经 1997— 2 0 0 0年实际检验取得了较好的预报效果。

Short\|range climatic prediction factors of summer server drought and flood in Guizhou were analysed. The forecast signal of summer sever drought and flood using different combinations of the East Asian and North American troughs in spring obtained five main prediction factors. The two short\|range climatic prediction models of summer sever drought and flood in Guizhou are established using the forecast signal and prediction factors. The model forecast results of independent sample in 1997\_2000 are satisfactory.