安徽省土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

ANALYSIS ON LAND USE CHANGES AND THEIR DRIVING FORCES IN ANHUI PROVINCE

利用GIS技术,基于20世纪80、90年代中期和2000年三期土地利用数据,分析了安徽省的土地利用变化。土地利用变化在空间上表现为:变化范围广,几乎遍及全省各个角落;西部和南部山区其土地利用变化的幅度相对较小,中部、东部和北部地区变化幅度较大;在合肥—巢湖—芜湖—马鞍山一片其变化幅度最大。土地利用变化在数量及时间上表现为:耕地(含水田和旱地)大幅减少,其次为草地和林地,代之以城镇用地、农村建设用地和水域的迅速增加;1987～1995年变化的幅度明显小于1995～2000年的变化幅度。随后运用典型相关分析方法对安徽省90年代中期和2000年之间的土地利用变化的驱动因子进行了统计分析,定量诊断出各驱动因子对安徽省土地利用变化的贡献作用大小。对1987～1995年安徽省土地变更数据进行统计分析,揭示了期间土地利用变化的驱动力。

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important component of global environmental change research. Supporting by geographic information system (GIS), LUCC in Anhui province was explored through analyzing the land use data of mid1980s, mid1990s and 2000. The characteristics of LUCC in central and northern Anhui was comparatively centralized.During the period between 1987 and 2000, there was a decrease in paddy field, dry land, forestland and grassland, and an increase in rural settlements, urban settlements and water body. The changing extent between 1987 and 1995 was obviously smaller than that between 1995 and 2000. Then, Canonical Correlation Analysis is applied to identify the driving forces of LUCC in Anhui province. Through operations of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and specific analysis of the results, the contribution of each driving force to land use change can be identified quantitatively. At the same time, tests are carried out through the canonical correlation coefficient and redundancy analysis. It is concluded that the LUCC in Anhui province is driven by the ratio of rural population to total population, number of village labors, local finance, resident's savings, occupying grain per capita and GDP per capita. To a great extent, agriculture structure change caused the decrease of farmland in Anhui province. Land use is a mirror of society, and its changes can reflect the socioeconomic developing course. The driving forces of land use changes should be paid more attention in order to draw relevant land use policies.