R/S分析在兰州古气候演化中的应用——以红咀寺剖面为例

Rescaled Range Analysis of Paleoclimatic Evolution in Hongzuisi Section,Lanzhou Area

R/S分析方法是现代非线性理论的重要组成部分 ,它适合于时间序列的自相似性研究。本文中 ,作者以兰州红咀寺剖面为例 ,根据有机碳同位素和碳酸钙含量资料 ,应用 R/S分析方法 ,探讨了兰州地区古气候变迁的周期规律特征。研究结果表明 ,R/S分析方法对于气候等分数布郎噪声序列具有独特的作用。应用该方法可以判断气候演变过程的持续性或周期性存在与否 ,进而可以为古气候重建和环境预测提供必要的科学依据。

As a part and parcel of nonlinear theory,the rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis),proposed by Harold E.Hurst in 1965,play an important role in self-sililarity study of time series.In this paper,the rescaled range analysis was used to analyse the paleoclimatic evolution of Hongzuisi section in Lanzhou area according to the materials of organic carbon isotope and CaCO -3 content.The result indicated that this method was very useful to study the cycles of climatic change,which provides vital reference for paleoclimatic reconstruction and paleoenvironmental forecast.