论国际危机及其生命周期

On the International Crisis and Its Life Cycle

国际危机是人类社会发展过程中经常面对的难题,它是指在某个时段发生的危害国际社会根本利益,且需要紧急应对的事态或情势,是某种国际关系从常态转向危险状态的表象化。国际危机存在从孕育到爆发,再到僵持、延续以及转圜的生命周期,它展现了国际危机的特殊规律性。国际危机会产生破坏力、传导力等正效应,以及危机真相暴露、危机对冲等反效应。准确识别、了解国际危机的本质及其内生逻辑和生命周期,是找出国际危机的解决办法,更好地预防、控制、消除国际危机的基本前提。在应对国际危机的过程中,不仅要看到国际危机的危与机,也要理清其正效应和反效应,从而寻求应对之道,只有这样才能更好地化解危机。

The international crisis is a problem that human beings often face in the history of development.It refers to the appearance of some international relations from the normal to the dangerous state in a certain period of time,which is harmful to the fundamental interests of the international community and needs emergency responses.The international crisis also exists in a life circle from birth to outbreak,to stalemate,continuation and rotation,and shows its special regularities.The international crisis will have the positive effects such as destructive force and conduction force,as well as the negative effects like crisis truth exposure and crisis hedging.To identify and understand the essence of the international crisis and its endogenous logic and life cycle is a solution to discovering the international crisis,and the premise of better preventing,controlling and eliminating the international crisis.In response to the international crisis,we should not only see the risks and opportunities from the international crisis,but also clarify the positive effects and the negative effects it brings,so as to find a way to cope with the crisis and to better solve the crisis.