基于活跃粉丝转发影响力模型的微博转发量预测

Reposting Number Prediction Based on the Model of Active Fans’ Reposting Influence

目前,微博已成为人们表达个人观点的重要渠道,也是舆论产生与传播的重要源头。从微博的转发传播规律入手,通过分析和挖掘活跃粉丝的历史转发规律,可以了解不同粉丝对于不同话题的关注程度及其转发影响力。因此,建立一个基于活跃粉丝的转发模型,可以刻画出微博传播效应,进而对特定微博的转发量进行预测。实验表明,相关模型能够大致估算特定微博的转发量,在舆情监测、微博营销以及个性化推荐等应用领域具有一定的实用价值。

At present, Weibo has become an important channel for people to express their personal views, and is also an important source of public opinion generation and dissemination. Starting from the reposting and propagation rules of Weibo, by analyzing and mining the historical reposting rules of active fans, we can understand the degree of attention of different fans on different topics and their reposting influence. Therefore,establishing a reposting model based on active fans can describe the Weibo propagation effect and predict the reposting amount of a specific microblog. Experiments show that the relevant model can roughly estimate the reposting amount of a specific microblog, and it has certain practical value in application fields such as public opinion monitoring, microblog marketing and personalized recommendation.