乌克兰危机的根源及前景

Origins and Prospects of Ukraine Crisis

乌克兰危机引发美俄新一轮对峙和全球大国关系深刻调整,其实质是“东西问题”,也就是在欧亚两大地缘政治板块的挤压和争夺态势下向东还是向西的问题。乌克兰危机的根源在于欧亚两大板块的长期碰撞,造成历史上积聚“东西仇怨”,经济上“东西分裂”,政治上“东西分野”,文化上“东西冲突”。未来一段时间,克里米亚归俄虽不被世界承认,但已成定局;乌克兰危机还会持续,但不会“破局”;美俄关系进入“僵冷期”,但不会总是“僵局”,而是会维持“不和、不斗、不破、不断”的新常态;乌克兰的未来在于找到“东西平衡”之道,寻求“和局”。

The Ukraine crisis has triggered a new round of US-Russia confrontation and profound adjustments in big power relations.The essence of the crisis is“a matter of East or West”;that is,facing the squeeze and contest from two geopolitical plates of Eurasia,Ukraine needs to choose to go east or west.The Ukraine crisis is rooted in the long-term collision of the two Eurasian plates,which has resulted in the accumulation of“east-west hatred”in history,“east-west split”in economy,“east-west distinction”in politics,and“east-west clash”in culture.For some time in the future,it will be a foregone conclusion for Crimea to be in the hand of Russian,regardless of no recognition from the international community;Ukraine crisis will continue,but with no risks of“breaking”;US-Russian relations will enter a“frosty period”,but not an eternal“deadlock”,or maintain the new normal of“no concerting,no fighting,no breaking,no severing”.Ukraine's future lies in a balanced and tied east-west relationship.