油气价格低迷下的阿拉伯世界:出路与前景

The Arab World at a Time of Low Oil and Gas Prices:Way out and Prospect

2014年6月以来,全球油气价格持续走低。当前油气低价对阿拉伯世界的影响是多方面的,它一方面有望推动阿拉伯世界产油国加速进行经济转型;另一方面也会对阿拉伯世界各国的社会统治基础、地区治理架构乃至中东热点问题带来深远影响。面对油气价格低迷带来的压力,无论海湾地区的阿拉伯产油国,还是埃及等油气生产和消费国,都开始进行社会经济发展转型尝试。在当前世界经济增长乏力、地区秩序失衡和全球国际格局转型背景下,未来阿拉伯国家发展转型的前景存在许多不确定因素。

Global oil and gas prices have been falling since June 2()14.The impact of the current low oil and gas prices on the Arab world is manifold.On the one hand,low oil and gas prices are expected to accelerate the economic transfonnation of the oil—producing countries in the Arab world;on the other hand,they will bring far一reaching impact onthe social domination base of the Arab countriesandregional governance structure,even on the hot issues in the Middle East.In the face of the pressure from depressed oil and gas prices,both Arab oil producers in the Gulf region and oil and gas producers and consumers such as Egypt have embarked on attempts to transform their social and economic dcvclopnicnt.Presently,the world economic growth is weak,the regional or-der is out of balance,and the global intcniational pattern is under transforma-tion.Against this background,there arc many uncertainties in the prospect of the development transition of the Arab countries.